Published in RINewsToday on October 19, 2026
Over the last four months, AARP has released polling results from nine battleground states to gauge candidate preferences, voter motivation, and the aging issues and policies that voters age 50 and older consider important when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming midterm elections.
AARP conducted the 2026 polls in Ohio (June), Georgia (July), Arizona and Michigan (August), Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas (September), and New Hampshire (October).
Now, just weeks before the November midterms, AARP has released its final report, “Targeted Congressional District (TCD) Voter Survey,” highlighting the outsized role older American voters could play in deciding key congressional races. As with its previous nine state polls, AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey.
The 21-page report examines voters in 43 congressional districts rated Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report. Its findings show that older voters are particularly concerned about rising prices, especially the cost of groceries and gasoline, as Election Day approaches.
The poll covering 43 competitive congressional districts, found these leading issues among voters age 50 and older:
- Rising prices and affordability
- Threats to democracy
- Immigration
Among persuadable voters 50-plus (21%), the priorities were different:
- Rising prices and affordability
- Social Security and Medicare
- Taxes
“Older voters are the nation’s most reliable voters. They decide elections, so candidates can’t afford to overlook them,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer, in an Oct. 15, 2026 statement announcing the report’s findings. “Older voters want leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare, support family caregivers, and ensure everyone can age with financial independence and dignity,” she said.
Research over time has shown that older voters make up a large part of the electorate and have a major impact on election results nationwide. Exit polls found that voters age 50 and older cast 55% of all ballots in 2024 and 59% in 2022. In the last midterm election, more than six out of ten older voters went to the polls, compared to about three out of ten voters under 30.
Latest findings suggest that older voters will continue showing up at the polls. Eighty-three percent of voters age 50 and older said they were extremely motivated to vote in November, compared to 66% of voters under 50. About 21% of older voters are considered “persuadable,” meaning they are not firmly committed to either party’s congressional candidate.
The pollsters also looked at the country’s mood and voters’ financial situations. The findings were not encouraging. Sixty-two percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 59% are worried about their personal finances.
The report shows Democrats holding a slim 3-point lead (49% to 46%) on the generic congressional ballot in the 43 competitive districts, with 5% undecided. President Trump carried these districts by 6 points in 2016.
But these findings show a clear generational divide:
* Republicans lead by 10 points (53% to 43%) among voters age 50 and older – while…
* Democrats lead by 26 points (60% to 34%) among voters under 50.
Looking at race:
* Republicans hold a 4-point advantage among white voters, while
* Democrats lead among Hispanic voters by 15 points and Black voters by 43 points.
Education also plays a role:
* Democrats are doing better among college graduates than among voters without four-year degrees.
The pollsters found that persuadable voters remain closely divided.
* Democrats lead by 6 points (42% to 36%) among persuadable voters overall, while…
* Republicans hold just a 1-point advantage (39% to 38%) among persuadable voters age 50 and older.
* Another 23% of these older voters remain undecided.
Top Issues of Concern
Not surprisingly, rising prices and affordability top the list of concerns for older voters in these competitive congressional districts, followed by threats to democracy and immigration.
For persuadable voters age 50 and older, the top three issues influencing their vote are rising prices and affordability, Social Security and Medicare, and taxes.
Looking more closely at Social Security, 58% of older voters say the program is or will be a major source of household income. An overwhelming 94% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who ensures they receive the Social Security benefits they earned through a lifetime of work.
On health care, 85% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who expands Medicare’s ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.
Caregiving is another important issue. Half of older voters surveyed say they are or have been family caregivers. At the same time, 77% would be more likely to support a candidate who provides a tax credit to help cover the costs of unpaid family caregiving.
Affordability. And when it comes to rising prices, groceries and gasoline remain the two biggest concerns.
Taking a Look at Gray Power at the Polls
Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Brown University professor, agrees with the findings of AARP’s latest survey. Older voters have become a crucial swing group that could shape this year’s election, he says.
West explains that seniors don’t vote as a monolith. They regularly shift their votes between Republicans and Democrats. Ultimately, their choices in November may come down to how well candidates protect the programs they rely on most, particularly Social Security and Medicare.
“This invaluable poll illustrates that seniors and older adults matter,” says Max Richtman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM). “Seniors will be the largest block of voters, and politicians ignore them at their own peril,” he warns.
“Seniors, who are more likely to live on a fixed income, have been especially hurt by Trump’s affordability crisis. This underlines the importance of Social Security in this election. This is why we say ‘Social Security is on the Ballot!’” stresses Richtman.
Richtman estimates that voters age 65 and older will account for more than 30% of the electorate. While Republicans have historically enjoyed an advantage among these voters, Democrats have narrowed that gap in recent elections, he says.
“Supporting Social Security is both good policy and good politics,” Richtman claims, pointing to the poll’s finding that 94% of older voters are more likely to support candidates who protect their Social Security benefits.
While AARP is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that does not endorse political candidates, NCPSSM’s political action committee does.
According to Richtman, NCPSSM-PAC has endorsed and supported more than 50 candidates nationwide, including Josh Turek (Iowa), Dan Osborne (Nebraska), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Jon Ossoff (Georgia).
NCPSSM also compiles a congressional scorecard to inform older Americans about how votes in Washington affect Social Security, Medicare and other programs important to them. Based on the organization’s legislative priorities, Democrats generally receive higher scores than Republicans.
Richtman notes that NCPSSM-PAC has been busy educating voters about the stakes of this election through its “Social Security on the Ballot” mobilization campaign. Its message is that the lawmakers elected this November will help determine Social Security’s future and whether beneficiaries receive the benefits they have paid for. The organization is getting that message out through town halls, press conferences, social media, and traditional media appearances. It also works with candidates and campaigns on policy issues affecting older Americans.
Meanwhile, AARP continues its own voter education efforts through its “Social Security, Your Vote, Its Future” initiative, asking congressional candidates how they would protect and strengthen the program.
The nation’s largest organization representing older Americans also provides research and analysis on Social Security policies, works with federal officials and members of Congress, and organizes public education efforts to inform and mobilize its members.
Through its “I Am a Social Security Voter” campaign, AARP encourages voters to prioritize protecting Social Security when evaluating candidates.
AARP’s latest report suggests that in tightly contested congressional districts, the “silver wave” of older voters may be the deciding factor in who goes to Washington and who stays home.
Stay tuned…
The survey was conducted by AARP’s bipartisan polling group, Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, and interviewed 1,368 likely voters in 43 competitive congressional districts between October 1 and 5, 2026, using a combination of cell phone, landline, and a text-to-web survey in both English and Spanish; the margin of sampling error is ±2.7 percentage points.
Full Survey Results: AARP’s 2026 Targeted Congressional District Voter Poll; go to Targeted Congressional District Voter Survey.
For AARP’s 2026 Midterm Election Polls, go to Older Voters in the 2026 Midterm Elections in Battleground States.
