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Silver Wave of Older Voters Important in Midterm Elections

Published in RINewsToday on October 19, 2026

Over the last four months, AARP has released polling results from nine battleground states to gauge candidate preferences, voter motivation, and the aging issues and policies that voters age 50 and older consider important when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming midterm elections.

AARP conducted the 2026 polls in Ohio (June), Georgia (July), Arizona and Michigan (August), Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas (September), and New Hampshire (October).

Now, just weeks before the November midterms, AARP has released its final report, “Targeted Congressional District (TCD) Voter Survey,” highlighting the outsized role older American voters could play in deciding key congressional races. As with its previous nine state polls, AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey.

The 21-page report examines voters in 43 congressional districts rated Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report. Its findings show that older voters are particularly concerned about rising prices, especially the cost of groceries and gasoline, as Election Day approaches.

The poll covering 43 competitive congressional districts, found these leading issues among voters age 50 and older:

  1. Rising prices and affordability
  2. Threats to democracy
  3. Immigration

Among persuadable voters 50-plus (21%), the priorities were different:

  1. Rising prices and affordability
  2. Social Security and Medicare
  3. Taxes

“Older voters are the nation’s most reliable voters. They decide elections, so candidates can’t afford to overlook them,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer, in an Oct. 15, 2026 statement announcing the report’s findings. “Older voters want leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare, support family caregivers, and ensure everyone can age with financial independence and dignity,” she said.

Research over time has shown that older voters make up a large part of the electorate and have a major impact on election results nationwide. Exit polls found that voters age 50 and older cast 55% of all ballots in 2024 and 59% in 2022. In the last midterm election, more than six out of ten older voters went to the polls, compared to about three out of ten voters under 30.

Latest findings suggest that older voters will continue showing up at the polls. Eighty-three percent of voters age 50 and older said they were extremely motivated to vote in November, compared to 66% of voters under 50. About 21% of older voters are considered “persuadable,” meaning they are not firmly committed to either party’s congressional candidate.

The pollsters also looked at the country’s mood and voters’ financial situations. The findings were not encouraging. Sixty-two percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 59% are worried about their personal finances.

The report shows Democrats holding a slim 3-point lead (49% to 46%) on the generic congressional ballot in the 43 competitive districts, with 5% undecided. President Trump carried these districts by 6 points in 2016.

But these findings show a clear generational divide:

* Republicans lead by 10 points (53% to 43%) among voters age 50 and older – while…

* Democrats lead by 26 points (60% to 34%) among voters under 50.

Looking at race:

* Republicans hold a 4-point advantage among white voters, while

* Democrats lead among Hispanic voters by 15 points and Black voters by 43 points.

Education also plays a role:

* Democrats are doing better among college graduates than among voters without four-year degrees.

The pollsters found that persuadable voters remain closely divided.

* Democrats lead by 6 points (42% to 36%) among persuadable voters overall, while…

* Republicans hold just a 1-point advantage (39% to 38%) among persuadable voters age 50 and older.

* Another 23% of these older voters remain undecided.

Top Issues of Concern

Not surprisingly, rising prices and affordability top the list of concerns for older voters in these competitive congressional districts, followed by threats to democracy and immigration.

For persuadable voters age 50 and older, the top three issues influencing their vote are rising prices and affordability, Social Security and Medicare, and taxes.

Looking more closely at Social Security, 58% of older voters say the program is or will be a major source of household income. An overwhelming 94% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who ensures they receive the Social Security benefits they earned through a lifetime of work.

On health care, 85% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who expands Medicare’s ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.

Caregiving is another important issue. Half of older voters surveyed say they are or have been family caregivers. At the same time, 77% would be more likely to support a candidate who provides a tax credit to help cover the costs of unpaid family caregiving.

Affordability. And when it comes to rising prices, groceries and gasoline remain the two biggest concerns.

Taking a Look at Gray Power at the Polls

Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Brown University professor, agrees with the findings of AARP’s latest survey. Older voters have become a crucial swing group that could shape this year’s election, he says.

West explains that seniors don’t vote as a monolith. They regularly shift their votes between Republicans and Democrats. Ultimately, their choices in November may come down to how well candidates protect the programs they rely on most, particularly Social Security and Medicare.

“This invaluable poll illustrates that seniors and older adults matter,” says Max Richtman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM). “Seniors will be the largest block of voters, and politicians ignore them at their own peril,” he warns.

“Seniors, who are more likely to live on a fixed income, have been especially hurt by Trump’s affordability crisis. This underlines the importance of Social Security in this election. This is why we say ‘Social Security is on the Ballot!’” stresses Richtman.

Richtman estimates that voters age 65 and older will account for more than 30% of the electorate. While Republicans have historically enjoyed an advantage among these voters, Democrats have narrowed that gap in recent elections, he says.

“Supporting Social Security is both good policy and good politics,” Richtman claims, pointing to the poll’s finding that 94% of older voters are more likely to support candidates who protect their Social Security benefits.

While AARP is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that does not endorse political candidates, NCPSSM’s political action committee does.

According to Richtman, NCPSSM-PAC has endorsed and supported more than 50 candidates nationwide, including Josh Turek (Iowa), Dan Osborne (Nebraska), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Jon Ossoff (Georgia).

NCPSSM also compiles a congressional scorecard to inform older Americans about how votes in Washington affect Social Security, Medicare and other programs important to them. Based on the organization’s legislative priorities, Democrats generally receive higher scores than Republicans.

Richtman notes that NCPSSM-PAC has been busy educating voters about the stakes of this election through its “Social Security on the Ballot” mobilization campaign. Its message is that the lawmakers elected this November will help determine Social Security’s future and whether beneficiaries receive the benefits they have paid for. The organization is getting that message out through town halls, press conferences, social media, and traditional media appearances. It also works with candidates and campaigns on policy issues affecting older Americans.

Meanwhile, AARP continues its own voter education efforts through its “Social Security, Your Vote, Its Future” initiative, asking congressional candidates how they would protect and strengthen the program.

The nation’s largest organization representing older Americans also provides research and analysis on Social Security policies, works with federal officials and members of Congress, and organizes public education efforts to inform and mobilize its members.

Through its “I Am a Social Security Voter” campaign, AARP encourages voters to prioritize protecting Social Security when evaluating candidates.

AARP’s latest report suggests that in tightly contested congressional districts, the “silver wave” of older voters may be the deciding factor in who goes to Washington and who stays home.

Stay tuned…

The survey was conducted by AARP’s bipartisan polling group, Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, and interviewed 1,368 likely voters in 43 competitive congressional districts between October 1 and 5, 2026, using a combination of cell phone, landline, and a text-to-web survey in both English and Spanish; the margin of sampling error is ±2.7 percentage points.

Full Survey Results: AARP’s 2026 Targeted Congressional District Voter Poll; go to Targeted Congressional District Voter Survey.

For AARP’s 2026 Midterm Election Polls, go to Older Voters in the 2026 Midterm Elections in Battleground States.

AARP poll says older women’s vote a “Wild Card” in upcoming election

Pubished in RINewsToday on February 26, 2024.

According to a newly released AARP public opinion poll, women voters age 50 and older are the biggest wild card vote in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, divided almost evenly on their preferred presidential candidate. But these voters express common concerns about their financial wellbeing, political bickering and gridlock, and the overall future direction of the nation.

With woman voters politically split, Democratic and Republican political consultants will most certainly analyze the poll’s findings to the reshape their strategies to win the White House and take control of Congress. The national on-line survey was conducted Jan. 10–21, 2024, polling 2,001 likely women voters age 50 and over and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

AARP’s poll findings detailed in “2024 She’s the Difference: The Wildcard of the 2024 Election” released on Feb. 22, indicated that in head-to-head matchup, 43% of women age 50+ respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump in an election today, while 46% said Joe Biden. In a generic Congressional ballot, Republicans and Democrats are tied at 45%, say the researchers.

Conducted with national pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero, the AARP survey of the 2024 Likely Electorate, shows Biden does particularly well among women 65+, winning this group over Trump by a 7-point margin, while women aged 50-64 are more likely to say they are undecided (15%). However, overall, these voters are dissatisfied with the country’s political leaders, and nearly half (48%) are worried about the upcoming election. They are likely to feel they are not being heard by the country’s political  leaders — 75% say politicians in Washington don’t listen to the views of people like them.

“Women aged 50 and over are one of the most consequential and influential voting groups in this election,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer in a Feb. 22 statement announcing the release of the survey’s findings detailed in the 10-page report. “Women in this voting bloc are concerned about America’s future, their own financial security, wellbeing, and our nation’s political divisiveness. And yet, they are not a monolithic group. Candidates who want to win in 2024 should pay attention to the concerns they share, and the concerns that differ,” notes LeaMond.

During a press call scheduled after the release of AARP’s poll data, LeaMond reinforced the point that woman were fairly evenly divided by party and ideology, and they tend to fall more in the center than their male counterparts.  She also emphasized that there’s bipartisan support for policies that help family caregivers, and said AARP plans to ask every candidate running for public office: “What’s your position on Social Security? And what’s your position on family caregiving?”

AARP’s survey  found that women voters 50+ have serious worries about their financial security.  When asked to choose the two biggest issues facing the nation  today, cost of living tops their list, with 38% citing it a top issue, followed by immigration (32%), threats to democracy (20%), and political division (16%).

The survey’s findings also indicated that half (51%) say they are not confident they will be better off financially a year from now. Among those currently working, 54% don’t think they will have enough money to retire at the age they would like to.  Finally, almost half (48%) say their own personal financial situation is falling short of what they expected at this point in their lives.

A large percentage of the survey respondents expressed their fears about the future of the nation. Seven-in-ten (70%) think the country is on the wrong track, and nearly half (47%) think America’s best days are behind us, while only 27% say the best days are ahead.

AARP’s survey also found that only 19% think the nation will become more stable in the year ahead, while 46% think it will become less so, citing government dysfunction resulting from political gridlock (63%), the economy (58%), political division and partisanship (55%), crime (55%), and the situation at the southern border (53%) as the top issues driving this instability.

Finally, the poll findings indicate that only 28% of women 50+ expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 42%  expect the economy to get worse.

Many women 50+ respondents feel pulled by a wide range of demands, especially caregiving, and that their personal lives aren’t what they expected at this stage of their life.  A third (32%) respondents say that their overall enjoyment in life falls short of what they expected. Many say they are stressed (34%) and worried (32%) when they were asked about how they feel about their life today.

Over seven-in-ten of the respondents noted they are currently a family caregiver (21%) or have been a caregiver (50%) to a parent, partner/spouse, or adult child. Among current unpaid caregivers, more than a third (36%) are also still working.

Across political affiliations, caregiving was viewed as a key political issue to be addressed inside the Beltway. Women voters overall (82%) and women voters 50+ (84%) overwhelmingly see a need for elected officials to provide more support for seniors and caregivers.

 “Women aged 50 plus are not easy to pin down into a single stereotype,” said Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights. “We know they’re frustrated with the way things are going, don’t believe their voices are being heard, and are worried about the future of the country. Even when they say they feel satisfied with some things in their own lives, they remain very worried about cost of living and our nation’s deep political divisions,” she said.

“While women over 50 might be looking for more ways to stay connected compared to voters overall, they are more likely to be dissatisfied with the amount of time spent with family,” adds Margie Omero, principal at GBAO. “They are less likely to make their voices heard, and are also less likely to feel listened to. Given the size and importance of this group, political leaders should put in the work to stay attuned to these voters’ needs and how to best reach them,” said Margie Omero, principal at GBAO, she said.

Woman’s Political Clout Can Win Elections

According to AARP, women aged 50 and over are one of the largest, most reliable voting blocs. While U.S. Census Bureau data shows they are a little over one-quarter (25.5%) of the voting age population and 28% of registered voters, a study by Pew Research Center found that they casted one-third (33%) of ballots in the 2022 election. 

Political insiders also know they are the largest bloc of swing voters. In 2022, AARP polling showed women 65+ in battleground Congressional districts moved from favoring Republican candidates by 2 points in July 2022, to favoring Democrats by 14 points in November 2022 – a 16-point shift that contributed to the narrowness of the Republican House majority.

According to Wendy J. Schiller, is a Professor of Political Science, Brown University and serves as a political analyst for WJAR10, the local NBC affiliate in Providence and WPRO radio, the gender gap in presidential elections still persists giving Democrats an average 9% advantage over Republicans among all women, but when you break that down, you do see some differences across age and other demographics.  Women of color, especially Black women, tend to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and white women are more evenly divided according to their geography, religion, and marital status.  “In recent years, suburban women voters who used to be more typically Republican have shifted their votes to a slight majority for the Democrats, starting with Obama and continuing through Trump and Biden.   Voters over 65 have the highest turnout at about 72% so winning or losing women in this age category can be crucial to an election outcome,” she says. 

Schiller notes that abortion access is an issue that resonates with women of all ages, and that has become a much larger issue since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.  “The immediate reaction among the GOP controlled states was to severely restrict abortion access to 6 weeks, although those efforts have been mitigated by state ballot initiatives in states like Ohio and Kansas.  Now we see with Alabama how far-reaching Dobbs is in terms of things related to defining life; the super majority Republican legislature of Alabama is now scrambling to preserve the right to fertility treatments whose aim is to create life, not end it,” she says.

“And Donald Trump is expected to announce his support for a national ban on abortion after 16 weeks, which is a political move designed to both preserve the right to abortion but also limit it nationally in states where that time frame is longer (20 weeks).  These moves are a clear sign that the GOP knows there may be an electoral cost they will pay for Dobbs in 2024, especially among women,” adds Schiller. 

“The lingering presence of Nikki Haley as a female challenger to Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary has clearly irritated him, and we will see what his victory speech in South Carolina does to his standing with women in the next national polls that come out,” says Schiller.  

Women and Aging Issues

Recent polling indicating that women — especially women over 50 — are concerned about their financial future this election year is not surprising,” says Max Richman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. “We have long advocated for improved retirement security for women,” he says.

“On average, women do not enjoy the same level of retirement security as men, due to historic wage inequality and uncompensated time off caring for family members.  Women also tend to live longer than men, meaning that their retirement income and savings must be stretched over a longer period of time, Richtman notes.

According to Richtman, this election is crucial for women’s retirement security, because the two parties’ approaches to Social Security are so divergent. President Biden has called on Congress to expand and strengthen Social Security.  “Congressional Democrats have introduced legislation to enhance the program, which would boost benefits for all retirees, with special increases for widows and widowers and beneficiaries over 85 years of age,” he says, noting that Democrats have also proposed new caregiver credits that would increase Social Security benefits for those who take time out of the workforce to care for loved ones.

“On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have repeatedly proposed to cut Social Security by raising the retirement age, means testing, and adopting a more miserly COLA formula — all of which would be detrimental to women in retirement. After years of financial inequality, it is time for women to enjoy a level of retirement security on par with men. And this year, the choice for women at the ballot box could not be clearer,” states Richtman.

According to Well-Know Rhode Island political analyst, Joe Fleming, confirms that female voters will be key in this election. In 2020 Biden did extremely well with this group and retain them to win re-election. “There is no question that suburban women will be key, if Biden is to win the suburbs he must have support from these female voters,” says Fleming.

“The issue of abortion plays very well with female voters and does not have a personal impact on female voters over 50 but, I believe it still has a major impact on them. We have seen this in states that had abortion questions on the ballot and in some red state” notes Fleming.

However, Fleming warns that one must keep in mind that the election is many months away and voters opinions change over time. 

American Political Scientist Darrell M.West agrees with Fleming assessment that woman voters will be key in electing the next president. “Women will make up a majority of the electorate in 2024 so will play an outsized role in who wins. Suburban women will be especially crucial because they have been swing voters in recent elections. Whoever wins that group likely will be the next president,” says Darrell West, Senior Fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation of the Governance Studies program at the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institute.  His research focuses on media, technology, and elections.

To view the full poll findings, visit www.aarp.org/shesthedifference.

To access all of Herb’s articles published by RINewstoday, go to https://rinewstoday.com/herb-weiss/

GOP Trial Balloon Called “Trojan Horse”

Published in Woonsocket Call on April 16, 2017

In previous years, the GOP leadership, now controlling both chambers of Congress, pushed legislative proposals to eliminate Social Security and Medicare by privatizing these programs. These attempts were clearly visible for all to see. But, we are in new political times with a GOP White House seeking the destruction of these programs, too, but as some say through the back door.

According to an Associated Press story, published on April 10, 2017, as the Trump Administration begins to learn from its failed attempt to repeal Obamacare, tax code reform is now on its agenda. One trial balloon, being floated by a GOP lobbyist with close ties to the Trump Administration, would eliminate the mandated payroll tax that all American workers pay to fund Social Security and Medicare.

“This approach would give a worker earning $60,000 a year an additional $3,720 in take-home pay, a possible win that lawmakers could highlight back in their districts even though it would involve changing the funding mechanism for Social Security, according to a lobbyist, who asked for anonymity to discuss the proposal without disrupting early negotiations,” says Writers Josh Boak and Stephen Ohlemacher in their Associated Press story.

Currently, about 163 million American workers pay Social Security taxes and 59 million retired and/or disabled persons collect monthly benefits. About one family in four receive income from Social Security. The nation’s social insurance and welfare program is a “pay-as-you-go-program.” Today’s workers support the program by paying their taxes into the program and the money flows back out to the program’s current beneficiaries.

GOP Stealth Attack on Social Security

Responding to the GOP trial balloon, in her blog post published last Tuesday on the Huffington Post, a politically liberal American online news web site, Contributor Nancy Altman, President of Social Security Works called the GOP trial balloon “a Trojan horse”, noting that “It appears to be a gift, in the form of middle class tax relief, but would, if enacted, lead to the destruction of working Americans’ fundamental economic security.”

If President Trump proposes “the Trojan horse, it would be the newest shot in the ongoing Republican war against Social Security. That war has failed so far. The American people overwhelmingly support Social Security because they appreciate that it provides working families with basic economic security when wages are lost as the result of death, disability, or old age. And it does so extremely efficiently, securely, fairly, and universally,” says Altman in her April 11, 2017 blog post.

According to Altman’s blog posting, after Trump and GOP lawmaker have suffered legislative defeats in their “frontal attacks” against Social Security to eliminate the programs “it appears they are contemplating a “stealth attack instead.” She noted, “In the 1980s, Republicans, who had long tried but failed to cut government programs directly, discovered a new tactic. They realized that they could undermine government and eventually force cuts to spending by cutting taxes and, in their words, starve the beast. Now, Trump is making plans to use that same tactic against Social Security.”

“Not only would the Trump proposal starve Social Security of dedicated revenue, it would ultimately destroy it. Social Security is not a government handout. It is wage insurance that the American people earn, as part of their compensation, and, indeed, pay for with deductions from their pay,” observed Altman.

Altman warns that GOP lobbyist’s proposal to eliminate the payroll tax to fund Social Security is consistent with Trump’s previous actions. “No one should be fooled by Trump’s campaign promise not to cut Social Security. Before he became a candidate, he called it a Ponzi scheme and advocated privatizing it. He chose, as his vice president, Mike Pence, who complained that the Bush privatization proposal didn’t go far enough, fast enough. As President, he has chosen a staunch opponent of Social Security, Mick Muvaney, as his budget director, and another staunch opponent, Tom Price, as Secretary of Health and Human Services (one of Social Security’s trustees.), she said.

In an email urging recipients to sign a petition to protect Social Security’s funding [the payroll tax], Michael Phelan, Deputy Director of Social Security Works noted, “For decades, Republicans in Washington and Wall Street bankers have told us that Social Security is going broke―even though Social Security has a $2.8 trillion surplus and can pay out 100% of benefits for the next 17 years and over 75% of benefits owed after that.” He warns the “Republican’s tax plans might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. By starving Social Security of funding, they could finally receive their wish―replacing Social Security’s guaranteed benefit with unstable Wall Street retirement plans.”

The “Great Wisdom” of a Payroll Contribution Tax

Max Richtman, President & CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, says, “It’s no surprise that the GOP lobbyist who suggested this dangerous idea and remained anonymous. After all, who would want to own up to an idea that would trigger the collapse of the most successful government program in U.S. history?”

Richtman adds, “Peddling this kind of scheme reminds me of President George W. Bush’s 2005 privatization proposal. Only in this case, the risk factor shifts from the uncertainty of Wall Street to benefit cuts that will almost certainly occur when Social Security is forced to compete for government funding with other discretionary programs. There was great wisdom in President Roosevelt’s plan for funding Social Security through a dedicated payroll tax. As President Roosevelt said, ‘We put those payroll contributions there to give the contributors a legal, moral and political right to collect their pensions…No damn politician can ever scrap my social security program.”

Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Washington, D.C.-based the Brookings Institution, sees an uphill battle to formalize the tax policy to eliminate the payroll contribution to fund Social Security. “I don’t think Trump will be able to eliminate or reduce the Social Security tax because of its dire consequences for the program itself. The program is very popular with the general public and many recipients count it as their sole support. Republicans will get killed if they try to do this. It is not a viable option now or anytime in the near future.”

When Trump releases his tax code reform proposal, aging advocates must remember that the devil is in the details. Read the proposal thoroughly with a fine-tooth comb