Silver Wave of Older Voters Important in Midterm Elections

Published in RINewsToday on October 19, 2026

Over the last four months, AARP has released polling results from nine battleground states to gauge candidate preferences, voter motivation, and the aging issues and policies that voters age 50 and older consider important when deciding who to vote for in the upcoming midterm elections.

AARP conducted the 2026 polls in Ohio (June), Georgia (July), Arizona and Michigan (August), Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Texas (September), and New Hampshire (October).

Now, just weeks before the November midterms, AARP has released its final report, “Targeted Congressional District (TCD) Voter Survey,” highlighting the outsized role older American voters could play in deciding key congressional races. As with its previous nine state polls, AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey.

The 21-page report examines voters in 43 congressional districts rated Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat by the Cook Political Report. Its findings show that older voters are particularly concerned about rising prices, especially the cost of groceries and gasoline, as Election Day approaches.

The poll covering 43 competitive congressional districts, found these leading issues among voters age 50 and older:

  1. Rising prices and affordability
  2. Threats to democracy
  3. Immigration

Among persuadable voters 50-plus (21%), the priorities were different:

  1. Rising prices and affordability
  2. Social Security and Medicare
  3. Taxes

“Older voters are the nation’s most reliable voters. They decide elections, so candidates can’t afford to overlook them,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer, in an Oct. 15, 2026 statement announcing the report’s findings. “Older voters want leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare, support family caregivers, and ensure everyone can age with financial independence and dignity,” she said.

Research over time has shown that older voters make up a large part of the electorate and have a major impact on election results nationwide. Exit polls found that voters age 50 and older cast 55% of all ballots in 2024 and 59% in 2022. In the last midterm election, more than six out of ten older voters went to the polls, compared to about three out of ten voters under 30.

Latest findings suggest that older voters will continue showing up at the polls. Eighty-three percent of voters age 50 and older said they were extremely motivated to vote in November, compared to 66% of voters under 50. About 21% of older voters are considered “persuadable,” meaning they are not firmly committed to either party’s congressional candidate.

The pollsters also looked at the country’s mood and voters’ financial situations. The findings were not encouraging. Sixty-two percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 59% are worried about their personal finances.

The report shows Democrats holding a slim 3-point lead (49% to 46%) on the generic congressional ballot in the 43 competitive districts, with 5% undecided. President Trump carried these districts by 6 points in 2016.

But these findings show a clear generational divide:

* Republicans lead by 10 points (53% to 43%) among voters age 50 and older – while…

* Democrats lead by 26 points (60% to 34%) among voters under 50.

Looking at race:

* Republicans hold a 4-point advantage among white voters, while

* Democrats lead among Hispanic voters by 15 points and Black voters by 43 points.

Education also plays a role:

* Democrats are doing better among college graduates than among voters without four-year degrees.

The pollsters found that persuadable voters remain closely divided.

* Democrats lead by 6 points (42% to 36%) among persuadable voters overall, while…

* Republicans hold just a 1-point advantage (39% to 38%) among persuadable voters age 50 and older.

* Another 23% of these older voters remain undecided.

Top Issues of Concern

Not surprisingly, rising prices and affordability top the list of concerns for older voters in these competitive congressional districts, followed by threats to democracy and immigration.

For persuadable voters age 50 and older, the top three issues influencing their vote are rising prices and affordability, Social Security and Medicare, and taxes.

Looking more closely at Social Security, 58% of older voters say the program is or will be a major source of household income. An overwhelming 94% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who ensures they receive the Social Security benefits they earned through a lifetime of work.

On health care, 85% say they would be more likely to support a candidate who expands Medicare’s ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.

Caregiving is another important issue. Half of older voters surveyed say they are or have been family caregivers. At the same time, 77% would be more likely to support a candidate who provides a tax credit to help cover the costs of unpaid family caregiving.

Affordability. And when it comes to rising prices, groceries and gasoline remain the two biggest concerns.

Taking a Look at Gray Power at the Polls

Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Brown University professor, agrees with the findings of AARP’s latest survey. Older voters have become a crucial swing group that could shape this year’s election, he says.

West explains that seniors don’t vote as a monolith. They regularly shift their votes between Republicans and Democrats. Ultimately, their choices in November may come down to how well candidates protect the programs they rely on most, particularly Social Security and Medicare.

“This invaluable poll illustrates that seniors and older adults matter,” says Max Richtman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM). “Seniors will be the largest block of voters, and politicians ignore them at their own peril,” he warns.

“Seniors, who are more likely to live on a fixed income, have been especially hurt by Trump’s affordability crisis. This underlines the importance of Social Security in this election. This is why we say ‘Social Security is on the Ballot!’” stresses Richtman.

Richtman estimates that voters age 65 and older will account for more than 30% of the electorate. While Republicans have historically enjoyed an advantage among these voters, Democrats have narrowed that gap in recent elections, he says.

“Supporting Social Security is both good policy and good politics,” Richtman claims, pointing to the poll’s finding that 94% of older voters are more likely to support candidates who protect their Social Security benefits.

While AARP is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that does not endorse political candidates, NCPSSM’s political action committee does.

According to Richtman, NCPSSM-PAC has endorsed and supported more than 50 candidates nationwide, including Josh Turek (Iowa), Dan Osborne (Nebraska), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Jon Ossoff (Georgia).

NCPSSM also compiles a congressional scorecard to inform older Americans about how votes in Washington affect Social Security, Medicare and other programs important to them. Based on the organization’s legislative priorities, Democrats generally receive higher scores than Republicans.

Richtman notes that NCPSSM-PAC has been busy educating voters about the stakes of this election through its “Social Security on the Ballot” mobilization campaign. Its message is that the lawmakers elected this November will help determine Social Security’s future and whether beneficiaries receive the benefits they have paid for. The organization is getting that message out through town halls, press conferences, social media, and traditional media appearances. It also works with candidates and campaigns on policy issues affecting older Americans.

Meanwhile, AARP continues its own voter education efforts through its “Social Security, Your Vote, Its Future” initiative, asking congressional candidates how they would protect and strengthen the program.

The nation’s largest organization representing older Americans also provides research and analysis on Social Security policies, works with federal officials and members of Congress, and organizes public education efforts to inform and mobilize its members.

Through its “I Am a Social Security Voter” campaign, AARP encourages voters to prioritize protecting Social Security when evaluating candidates.

AARP’s latest report suggests that in tightly contested congressional districts, the “silver wave” of older voters may be the deciding factor in who goes to Washington and who stays home.

Stay tuned…

The survey was conducted by AARP’s bipartisan polling group, Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, and interviewed 1,368 likely voters in 43 competitive congressional districts between October 1 and 5, 2026, using a combination of cell phone, landline, and a text-to-web survey in both English and Spanish; the margin of sampling error is ±2.7 percentage points.

Full Survey Results: AARP’s 2026 Targeted Congressional District Voter Poll; go to Targeted Congressional District Voter Survey.

For AARP’s 2026 Midterm Election Polls, go to Older Voters in the 2026 Midterm Elections in Battleground States.

Just Days Away: Social Security to Announce 2027 COLA Increase

Published in RINewsToday on October 12, 2026

In just a few days, nearly 279,000 Rhode Islanders who rely on Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) will learn how much their monthly checks will increase in 2027 when the Social Security Administration (SSA) announces next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Social Security recipients will see the increase in January, while SSI recipients will receive their adjusted payments on Dec. 31, 2026, because New Year’s Day is a federal holiday. The additional income will help them keep pace with rising costs.

Older Rhode Island beneficiaries will be joining 75 million Americans—including roughly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries and between 7.3 and 7.5 million SSI recipients—awaiting this highly anticipated news.

SSA is expected to announce the official 2027 COLA on Wednesday, Oct. 14, following the release of September inflation data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the Virginia-based The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), the SSA’s COLA for 2026 was 2.8 percent, somewhat higher than the 2.5 percent COLA implemented at the start of 2025. TSCL predicts that the COLA for 2027 will tick up to 3.5 percent.  AARP experts project an even higher COLA increase for 2027 than TSCL estimates, at 3.6 percent.

Congress enacted the COLA provision as part of the 1972 Social Security Amendments, and automatic annual COLAs began in 1975, says SSA, noting that before then Congress could only increase this benefit through special legislation.  The new provision tied COLAs to the annual increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI-W).

SSA calculates the COLA by comparing the average CPI-W for July, August and September with the average for the same three months of the previous year.  The percentage is rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent and determines the annual adjustment.

With the 3.5 percent projection, the average beneficiary’s monthly benefit increases by $67.90. The current average beneficiary receives $1,940.08 in their monthly Social Security check. With a 3.5 percent COLA, that would rise to $ 2,007.98, estimates TSCL

If TSCL’s calculation holds, the 2027 COLA would land right in the middle of the ranking historically—ranking 19th among all COLA adjustments since the federal government started using its current inflation math in 1977. By comparison, the recent boost seniors received at the start of 2026 was a bit more modest, tying for 27th place.

“The biggest thing we’re watching with the COLA announcement coming are short-term shocks to the economy that push inflation way up or down in the next 30 days. Of the three CPI-W figures used to calculate the COLA, two are already in,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon G. Benton in a statement releasing the 2027 estimated projections.

“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” said Benton, noting that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The consumer price index (CPI) captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget, she adds.

“The COLA only happening once a year puts life on hold for a lot of seniors. When prices rise, they don’t rise next January when your benefit check goes up. They rise right now. We need to consider COLAs that compound quarterly or monthly so seniors can keep up throughout the year when inflation comes in above Federal Reserve targets, like in 2026,” adds Benton.

Advocates Push for CPI-E Index

In a recent AARP Sept. 11 blog post, “Social Security COLA 2027: An Early Look at How Much Payments Could Increase,” writer Deirdre Shesgreen interviewed Rich Johnson, the vice president for financial security at the AARP Public Policy Institute. Johnson emphasized that the organization’s COLA forecast is meant to give older adults a head start on managing their 2027 finances.  “Family budgets have been under increasing pressure because of rising prices,” Johnson noted. “The sooner that we can give them reliable information as to how much their benefits might [increase next year], the sooner they can start planning,” he said.

“Most seniors depend on Social Security for some or all of their income, and the program’s annual Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) for inflation help keep them from falling behind,” says Max Richtman, President & CEO, National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare, noting that even the estimated 3.5-3.6% increase will barely be enough for seniors to tread water.

“That’s because the COLA is based on an inflation index that does not account for the impact of inflation on seniors’ true expenses, especially health care costs – which are rising faster than the general inflation rate,” said Richtman, calling for the adoption of the CPI-E (Consumer Price Index for the Elderly).  This CPI index is designed to better reflect older American’s spending patterns.

“What we know is that when the COLA is announced, it will be far too low to make up for the crushing prices everybody is facing right now. But seniors and those on fixed incomes are being crushed the hardest,” said Alex Lawson, Executive Director of Social Security Works.

His concerns come as Census Bureau figures show that the poverty rate among Americans aged 65 and older rose from 9.4 percent in 2020 to 15.4 percent in 2025, according to the Supplemental Poverty Measure, which accounts for medical expenses and other living costs.

“And still Republican proposals, when we see them, include provisions to cut back on the COLA, which is just a cruel benefit cut. We need to expand Social Security, increase benefits, raise the COLA, and pay for it by having billionaires pay the same rate on all of their income into Social Security. Just like the rest of us do,” argued Lawson.

Improving SSA’s Benefit Calculation Formula

TSCL advocates for the Social Security 2100 Act, legislation championed by Congressman John Larson (D-Connecticut), first introduced in 2017 and reintroduced in 2026.

Lawmakers reintroduced this legislative proposal to provide long-term relief to seniors losing buying power due to high inflation.  The bill would raise benefits by 2%, set the new minimum benefit to 125% of the Federal poverty line, change the COLA calculation to the CPI for the Elderly (CPI-E), and improve the benefits calculation formula, said TSCL.

“Although the Social Security 2100 Act is unlikely to pass in the current Congress, it should.  The bill is the gold standard for Social Security reform and accomplishes the majority of changes older Americans want to see in the program,” says TSCL’s Benton in a statement released on July 14. “The reality is that poverty is increasing rapidly among American seniors, who make up the fastest-growing portion of the homeless population. Adjusting the minimum benefit to above the Federal poverty line would almost certainly slow this trend, although more holistic efforts may be required to stop it entirely,” she says.

Shoring Up the Nation’s Fraying Social Safety Net

Last week, AARP Foundation announced its analysis of newly released Census data on poverty, income and health insurance coverage in 2025.

“At first glance, it sounded like good news,” observed AARP Foundation President Claire Casey during an 18-minute virtual media briefing on Sept. 24. “Poverty fell, and household income hit a record high, but the headlines can be deceiving and not reflect what is happening to older Americans,” she said.

Casey stressed to attending journalists that the key takeaway was that senior poverty, measured using the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), has risen for the fifth consecutive year, a trend not seen by any other age group. The SPM accounts for unavoidable costs like housing and health care.

According to the SPM, more than 10 million people age 65 and older are living in poverty, a number that has jumped roughly 45% since 2019. “And for perspective, we’re talking about an incredibly low bar. For a single renter, the poverty line starts at just over $19,000 a year,” Casey said.

Between 2020 and 2025, the percentage of Americans 65 and older living in poverty increased from 9.4% to 15.4%, according to the SPM, the largest increase for any age group measured.

Casey also highlighted the continuing economic disparities facing older women, whose poverty rate is about 17%. She attributed this, in part, to lifetime inequalities, including the gender pay gap and career interruptions for child care and elder care.

Taking a Look at Poverty Before Retirement

To better understand why senior poverty keeps rising, Casey argues that we have to look at what happens before people turn 65.

While discussing the newly released Census data, Casey compared it with findings from AARP Foundation’s new Economic Security Monitor, a quarterly survey tracking financial stability among adults age 50 and older living on low incomes.

The latest Monitor found significant hardships among adults ages 50 to 64, a group traditionally considered to be in their peak earning years.

Nearly one-third reported running out of food before they had money to buy more, 70% said their household expenses had increased in just the last three months, and one-third could not cover an emergency expense of more than $100.

Many assume that employment in their 50s brings peak financial stability, but for millions of Americans preparing to retire, the numbers tell a different story.

More than 7 million people between ages 50 and 64, about one in eight, are already living in poverty, Casey pointed out.

“That’s our warning sign. If people are already struggling this much before retirement, we know where they are headed,” Casey said, noting that “we have to act now or senior poverty will keep rising.”

“But what’s even more troubling is that you don’t have to be in poverty at 55 to age into it,” Casey warned. An individual can work full-time throughout a career, do everything right, and still end up impoverished in retirement. Only one in four older adults with low incomes has access to a workplace retirement plan, she noted.

Casey also pointed to problems facing low-income workers between ages 50 and 64, particularly those who lose jobs or work in low-paying occupations because of age discrimination or early health complications. They are more likely to experience long-term unemployment, and only 10% will find a new job with equal or higher pay, she said.

Programs exist to help seniors facing poverty, but getting those benefits can be difficult. “Older adults miss out on an estimated $58 billion in benefits each year because the system is hard to access,” Casey said.

“As Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid requirements change, I worry that eligible people, especially those 55 to 64, will lose access,” Casey said, stressing the importance of maintaining these lifeline benefits and helping states deliver them more effectively.

“Each year since 2020, more and more older adults have fallen into abject poverty,” Casey said. “Today’s release confirms what we see every day in our work—that rising prices, an eroding social safety net, and diminishing access to quality jobs are creating extreme precarity for older adults in our communities.”

Advocacy Groups Weigh In

Max Richtman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, says the Census numbers underscore the need to protect Social Security as Congress considers how to address the program’s long-term financial shortfall.

“The 2025 Census poverty data and AARP analysis make one fact unmistakable: retirees and future retirees are being pushed into deeper economic insecurity,” Richtman said. “Cutting earned benefits would intensify the crisis,” he cautioned.

The National Committee believes Congress should require wealthy Americans to contribute more to extend Social Security’s solvency while improving benefits for current and future generations.

Here in Rhode Island, advocates say the numbers tell a similar story.

Carol Anne Costa, Executive Director of the Senior Agenda Coalition of Rhode Island (SACRI), points to Census data, the Elder Index, and United Way of Rhode Island’s ALICE report as evidence that many older Rhode Islanders struggle to pay for housing, food, health care, utilities, and transportation.

“The data tells a troubling story,” Costa said. “The share of older Rhode Island households living below the federal poverty level rose from 8.9 percent in 2019 to 12.3 percent in 2024. This is not an abstract statistic, she said, noting it represents older adults having to make impossible choices between paying rent, filling prescriptions, keeping the heat on, or buying groceries.

Costa added that one in four older Rhode Island households has income below $25,000 a year. According to the 2026 Elder Index figures cited by SACRI, an older adult renter in good health needs approximately $34,152 annually to meet basic expenses. An older couple in poor health who own their home needs approximately $45,996.

But poverty statistics alone do not tell the whole story.

“The federal poverty measure does not capture the full extent of hardship facing older adults,” said Maureen Maigret, SACRI Policy Advisor. She pointed to the recent United Way of Rhode Island ALICE report, which found that 53% of older Rhode Islanders do not have enough income to meet necessities.

“This situation is getting worse, not better,” Maigret said. “Rhode Island must treat affordability impacting older adults as an urgent public policy priority.”

SACRI is urging state policymakers to move forward with its Older Adult Affordability Agenda, beginning with eliminating the asset limit for the Medicare Savings Program.

“Eliminating the asset limit would allow thousands more eligible older Rhode Islanders and people with disabilities to qualify for help with their Medicare Part B premiums,” Maigret said. For eligible individuals, she noted, that can mean savings of at least $2,400 each year because the federal government pays the Part B premium.

Costa calls it a practical solution that would put money back into the pockets of low-income older adults while bringing additional federal dollars into Rhode Island.

The Economic Progress Institute (EPI) also warns that the federal poverty numbers do not fully capture the financial squeeze facing Rhode Islanders.

Nina Harrison, EPI’s Policy Director, points out that although the Census Bureau’s Official Poverty Measure fell by 0.5 percentage points nationally in 2025, the broader Supplemental Poverty Measure did not change significantly. She contends that even though incomes may have risen, they did not rise enough to offset higher costs.

Harrison also warns that changes in federal healthcare and food assistance policies will put additional pressure on low-income Rhode Islanders. She cited the loss of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits and federal changes to SNAP and Medicaid as particular concerns.

EPI’s 2026 Rhode Island Standard of Need report, scheduled for release Monday, takes a closer look at what Rhode Island households need to cover basic living expenses. Harrison says its findings show that nearly 40% of Rhode Island households cannot afford their basic needs, including many older residents. More than half of Rhode Island women age 65 and older who live alone cannot meet their basic needs, she said.

“Without significant intervention and harm reduction, OBRA and related federal policies are sure to increase the poverty rate and human suffering,” Harrison warned.

She is urging the General Assembly to find ways to protect food and healthcare assistance for Rhode Islanders who lose federal benefits and to strengthen other programs serving low-income residents.

A Final Note…

As previously stated, the numbers the Census Bureau released tell us something important. The nation’s overall poverty rate may have fallen in 2025, but millions of older Americans are being left behind.

Casey’s warning at the start of the press briefing deserves the attention of Congress and state legislatures. Since millions of older Americans face financial difficulties, it is no surprise that many ultimately end up in poverty after retirement.

For many, the financial problems begin years before they collect their first Social Security check. They retire with little savings, no pension or workplace retirement plan, and not much room in their monthly budget to cover increased rent, a broken refrigerator, or an unexpected medical bill.

AARP Foundation efforts to call attention to senior poverty should serve as a troubling warning to Congress as it debates the future of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Older Americans Act, and SNAP.

Congress must address Social Security’s long-term financial problems before automatic cuts to program benefits take place in 2032.  Tens of millions of retirees, disabled individuals, and survivors already living on the financial edge would see their situation worsen. Congress must also ensure that changes to the nation’s social safety-net programs don’t make it harder for eligible older Americans to get the help they need.

Rhode Island lawmakers also have their work to do. Eliminating the asset limit for the Medicare Savings Program would be one concrete step toward helping low-income older Rhode Islanders stretch their limited monthly incomes.

To review AARP Foundation’s June 2026 Economic Security Monitor (full report), go to  AARP Foundation Economic Security Monitor Fact Sheet.

To review AARP Foundation’s June 2026 Economic Security Monitor (fact sheet), go to AARP Foundation Economic Security Monitor Fact Sheet

Download the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2025 Poverty Report,  go to Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2025

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