Tag Archives for President Donald Trump

AARP poll says older women’s vote a “Wild Card” in upcoming election

Pubished in RINewsToday on February 26, 2024.

According to a newly released AARP public opinion poll, women voters age 50 and older are the biggest wild card vote in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, divided almost evenly on their preferred presidential candidate. But these voters express common concerns about their financial wellbeing, political bickering and gridlock, and the overall future direction of the nation.

With woman voters politically split, Democratic and Republican political consultants will most certainly analyze the poll’s findings to the reshape their strategies to win the White House and take control of Congress. The national on-line survey was conducted Jan. 10–21, 2024, polling 2,001 likely women voters age 50 and over and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

AARP’s poll findings detailed in “2024 She’s the Difference: The Wildcard of the 2024 Election” released on Feb. 22, indicated that in head-to-head matchup, 43% of women age 50+ respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump in an election today, while 46% said Joe Biden. In a generic Congressional ballot, Republicans and Democrats are tied at 45%, say the researchers.

Conducted with national pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero, the AARP survey of the 2024 Likely Electorate, shows Biden does particularly well among women 65+, winning this group over Trump by a 7-point margin, while women aged 50-64 are more likely to say they are undecided (15%). However, overall, these voters are dissatisfied with the country’s political leaders, and nearly half (48%) are worried about the upcoming election. They are likely to feel they are not being heard by the country’s political  leaders — 75% say politicians in Washington don’t listen to the views of people like them.

“Women aged 50 and over are one of the most consequential and influential voting groups in this election,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer in a Feb. 22 statement announcing the release of the survey’s findings detailed in the 10-page report. “Women in this voting bloc are concerned about America’s future, their own financial security, wellbeing, and our nation’s political divisiveness. And yet, they are not a monolithic group. Candidates who want to win in 2024 should pay attention to the concerns they share, and the concerns that differ,” notes LeaMond.

During a press call scheduled after the release of AARP’s poll data, LeaMond reinforced the point that woman were fairly evenly divided by party and ideology, and they tend to fall more in the center than their male counterparts.  She also emphasized that there’s bipartisan support for policies that help family caregivers, and said AARP plans to ask every candidate running for public office: “What’s your position on Social Security? And what’s your position on family caregiving?”

AARP’s survey  found that women voters 50+ have serious worries about their financial security.  When asked to choose the two biggest issues facing the nation  today, cost of living tops their list, with 38% citing it a top issue, followed by immigration (32%), threats to democracy (20%), and political division (16%).

The survey’s findings also indicated that half (51%) say they are not confident they will be better off financially a year from now. Among those currently working, 54% don’t think they will have enough money to retire at the age they would like to.  Finally, almost half (48%) say their own personal financial situation is falling short of what they expected at this point in their lives.

A large percentage of the survey respondents expressed their fears about the future of the nation. Seven-in-ten (70%) think the country is on the wrong track, and nearly half (47%) think America’s best days are behind us, while only 27% say the best days are ahead.

AARP’s survey also found that only 19% think the nation will become more stable in the year ahead, while 46% think it will become less so, citing government dysfunction resulting from political gridlock (63%), the economy (58%), political division and partisanship (55%), crime (55%), and the situation at the southern border (53%) as the top issues driving this instability.

Finally, the poll findings indicate that only 28% of women 50+ expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 42%  expect the economy to get worse.

Many women 50+ respondents feel pulled by a wide range of demands, especially caregiving, and that their personal lives aren’t what they expected at this stage of their life.  A third (32%) respondents say that their overall enjoyment in life falls short of what they expected. Many say they are stressed (34%) and worried (32%) when they were asked about how they feel about their life today.

Over seven-in-ten of the respondents noted they are currently a family caregiver (21%) or have been a caregiver (50%) to a parent, partner/spouse, or adult child. Among current unpaid caregivers, more than a third (36%) are also still working.

Across political affiliations, caregiving was viewed as a key political issue to be addressed inside the Beltway. Women voters overall (82%) and women voters 50+ (84%) overwhelmingly see a need for elected officials to provide more support for seniors and caregivers.

 “Women aged 50 plus are not easy to pin down into a single stereotype,” said Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights. “We know they’re frustrated with the way things are going, don’t believe their voices are being heard, and are worried about the future of the country. Even when they say they feel satisfied with some things in their own lives, they remain very worried about cost of living and our nation’s deep political divisions,” she said.

“While women over 50 might be looking for more ways to stay connected compared to voters overall, they are more likely to be dissatisfied with the amount of time spent with family,” adds Margie Omero, principal at GBAO. “They are less likely to make their voices heard, and are also less likely to feel listened to. Given the size and importance of this group, political leaders should put in the work to stay attuned to these voters’ needs and how to best reach them,” said Margie Omero, principal at GBAO, she said.

Woman’s Political Clout Can Win Elections

According to AARP, women aged 50 and over are one of the largest, most reliable voting blocs. While U.S. Census Bureau data shows they are a little over one-quarter (25.5%) of the voting age population and 28% of registered voters, a study by Pew Research Center found that they casted one-third (33%) of ballots in the 2022 election. 

Political insiders also know they are the largest bloc of swing voters. In 2022, AARP polling showed women 65+ in battleground Congressional districts moved from favoring Republican candidates by 2 points in July 2022, to favoring Democrats by 14 points in November 2022 – a 16-point shift that contributed to the narrowness of the Republican House majority.

According to Wendy J. Schiller, is a Professor of Political Science, Brown University and serves as a political analyst for WJAR10, the local NBC affiliate in Providence and WPRO radio, the gender gap in presidential elections still persists giving Democrats an average 9% advantage over Republicans among all women, but when you break that down, you do see some differences across age and other demographics.  Women of color, especially Black women, tend to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and white women are more evenly divided according to their geography, religion, and marital status.  “In recent years, suburban women voters who used to be more typically Republican have shifted their votes to a slight majority for the Democrats, starting with Obama and continuing through Trump and Biden.   Voters over 65 have the highest turnout at about 72% so winning or losing women in this age category can be crucial to an election outcome,” she says. 

Schiller notes that abortion access is an issue that resonates with women of all ages, and that has become a much larger issue since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.  “The immediate reaction among the GOP controlled states was to severely restrict abortion access to 6 weeks, although those efforts have been mitigated by state ballot initiatives in states like Ohio and Kansas.  Now we see with Alabama how far-reaching Dobbs is in terms of things related to defining life; the super majority Republican legislature of Alabama is now scrambling to preserve the right to fertility treatments whose aim is to create life, not end it,” she says.

“And Donald Trump is expected to announce his support for a national ban on abortion after 16 weeks, which is a political move designed to both preserve the right to abortion but also limit it nationally in states where that time frame is longer (20 weeks).  These moves are a clear sign that the GOP knows there may be an electoral cost they will pay for Dobbs in 2024, especially among women,” adds Schiller. 

“The lingering presence of Nikki Haley as a female challenger to Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary has clearly irritated him, and we will see what his victory speech in South Carolina does to his standing with women in the next national polls that come out,” says Schiller.  

Women and Aging Issues

Recent polling indicating that women — especially women over 50 — are concerned about their financial future this election year is not surprising,” says Max Richman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. “We have long advocated for improved retirement security for women,” he says.

“On average, women do not enjoy the same level of retirement security as men, due to historic wage inequality and uncompensated time off caring for family members.  Women also tend to live longer than men, meaning that their retirement income and savings must be stretched over a longer period of time, Richtman notes.

According to Richtman, this election is crucial for women’s retirement security, because the two parties’ approaches to Social Security are so divergent. President Biden has called on Congress to expand and strengthen Social Security.  “Congressional Democrats have introduced legislation to enhance the program, which would boost benefits for all retirees, with special increases for widows and widowers and beneficiaries over 85 years of age,” he says, noting that Democrats have also proposed new caregiver credits that would increase Social Security benefits for those who take time out of the workforce to care for loved ones.

“On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have repeatedly proposed to cut Social Security by raising the retirement age, means testing, and adopting a more miserly COLA formula — all of which would be detrimental to women in retirement. After years of financial inequality, it is time for women to enjoy a level of retirement security on par with men. And this year, the choice for women at the ballot box could not be clearer,” states Richtman.

According to Well-Know Rhode Island political analyst, Joe Fleming, confirms that female voters will be key in this election. In 2020 Biden did extremely well with this group and retain them to win re-election. “There is no question that suburban women will be key, if Biden is to win the suburbs he must have support from these female voters,” says Fleming.

“The issue of abortion plays very well with female voters and does not have a personal impact on female voters over 50 but, I believe it still has a major impact on them. We have seen this in states that had abortion questions on the ballot and in some red state” notes Fleming.

However, Fleming warns that one must keep in mind that the election is many months away and voters opinions change over time. 

American Political Scientist Darrell M.West agrees with Fleming assessment that woman voters will be key in electing the next president. “Women will make up a majority of the electorate in 2024 so will play an outsized role in who wins. Suburban women will be especially crucial because they have been swing voters in recent elections. Whoever wins that group likely will be the next president,” says Darrell West, Senior Fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation of the Governance Studies program at the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institute.  His research focuses on media, technology, and elections.

To view the full poll findings, visit www.aarp.org/shesthedifference.

To access all of Herb’s articles published by RINewstoday, go to https://rinewstoday.com/herb-weiss/

Democrats Will Have to Compromise if They Lose Georgia Senate Run-Off

Published in the Pawtucket Times on December 7, 2020

With Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden taking the White House, the Washington, DC-based National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM) called on Congressional lawmakers to address the needs of older Americans during lame-duck session ending Jan. 3 and throughout President Biden’s first 100 days in office.  Can Congressional lawmakers put aside political differences to pass a last-ditch Stimulus package compromise, a defense bill, and consider aging legislation piling up in just 27 days when the lame-duck session ends?  Will there be political grid lock after President Biden takes office on Jan. 20 if the GOP maintains control of the Senate block Congress from taking up legislation impacting older Americans?

Legislation Piling Up in Lame-Duck Session

“Though this is normally a time when expectations for Congressional action are low, the National Committee expects our elected representatives to act on behalf of seniors and other struggling Americans hit hard by the pandemic,” says NCPSSM president and CEO Max Richtman, in correspondence sent to Congress on Dec. 3.

Across the nation seniors are the hardest hit age group by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  “Eight out of 10 deaths from COVID in the U.S. have been in adults 65 years old and older. Whether as part of an omnibus funding bill, continuing resolution or COVID relief package, The National Committee is urging lawmakers to pass urgently needed measures for seniors,” says Richtman.

Richtman calls on Congress to address the Social Security “Notch” issue. He warns that if Congress doesn’t take action, workers born in 1960 and 1961, will see lower Social Security retirement benefits in the future. According to the Chief Actuary of Social Security, this will sharply reduce benefits for those born in 1960 compared to the benefits received by people born just one year earlier, creating an effect known as a “notch,” notes NCPSSM’s correspondence.

Congress can correct this notch in Social Security benefits by passing Rep. John Larson’s (D-CT) H.R. 7499, the “Social Security COVID Correction and Equity Act,” says Richtman.  The legislative proposal would increase benefits for those born in 1960 and 1961 without impact the benefits for any other beneficiary. 

In October, the Social Security Administration announced that approximately 70 million Americans would see a meager 1.3 percent increase Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income. “More than half of seniors receive over one-half of their income from Social Security, and it provides at least 90 percent of income for more than one-in-five seniors.  These seniors are dependent on a reasonable COLAs to maintain even a modest standard of living in retirement,” said Richtman.

With retirees experiencing financial difficulties during the pandemic, a $20 increase in their monthly check might not help them to pay for spiraling health care and drug costs, along with the expenses of purchasing personal protective equipment and cleaning supplies to keep them safe. 

Richtman’s correspondence also pushes for passage of Rep. Peter DeFazio’s H.R. 8598, “Emergency Social Security COLA for 2021 Act,” to provide Social Security beneficiaries with a 3 percent increase (or a $250 per month flat increase) which would reduce the impact of the small 2021 COLA increase. 

Protecting the Fiscal Viability of Social Security

Last August, NCPSSM and aging advocacy groups opposed President Trump’s signed executive order that would allow employers to defer workers’ payroll tax contributions for the rest of the year.  Between Jan. 1, 2021 and April 30, 2021, these employees will be required to pay back their deferred payroll taxes, doubling their FICA taxes for the first four months of 2021.  The National Committee has supported efforts to ease the burden for those affected by this hardship. 

NCPSSM correspondence also called on Congress to extend a protection to lower-income Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries, including ‘Money Follows the Person’ (which provides funding for states to help skilled nursing care patients to remain in their homes) and impoverishment protections for the spouses of Medicaid recipients receiving long-term care.

Finally, Richtman requested extending the funding for Medicare Low-Income and Enrollment Assistance, which provides funding for State Health Insurance Assistance Programs and Area Agencies on Aging to assist low-income seniors access programs such as the Medicare Prescription Drug Program Part D Low-Income Subsidy.

NCPSSM’s “wish list”, detailed in Richtman’s correspondence, could easily be rolled into a continuing resolution that Congress must pass by Dec. 11 to get the federal government operational. But, any of the legislative proposals pushed by The National Committee would be bottled up in the Senate, by GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, referred to as the “grim reaper,” he Republicans maintain control of the Senate during the 117th Congress.

GOP ‘Grim Reaper’ Keeps Democratic Bills from Consideration

Last February, on Fox News Friday, anchor Bret Baier asked McConnell to confirm Democratic charges that House passed and Senate proposed legislation would never see the light of day on the Senate Floor.  At the time of this interview, the GOP Senator, controlling his chamber’s legislative agenda, confirmed that 395 bills sitting in his chamber would not be passed.

“It is true,” admitted McConnell during the Fox News interview.  “They’ve been on full left-wing parade over there, trotting out all of their left-wing solutions that are going to be issues in the fall campaign. They’re right. We’re not going to pass those.,” he said, recognizing the politics of a divided government. 

McConnell’s ‘Legislative Graveyard’ created by his blocking debate, markup and refusing to allow a vote on Democratic proposed legislation is well documented in the press and by a report released last September by Common Cause, a watch dog advocacy group with chapters in 35 states. “In fact, the Senate’s inaction has the 116th Congress on track to be the least productive in history, with just one percent of the bills becoming law [between] January 3, 2019 to September 16, 2020],” said Aaron Scherb, Common Cause’s director of legislation and author of the 2020 Democracy Scor

During an interview published on Sept. 16, 2020 in Newsweek, Scherb said, “There have been hundreds [of bills] that have been passed by the House at this point.  There have only been 158 enacted laws by this 116th Congress to this point.  Yet there are hundreds of bills that have passed the House but continue to sit in Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s desk, or his ‘legislative graveyard’ as it’s been called.”

With McConnell winning his reelection, the senator from Kentucky can only maintain control of the Senate’s legislative agenda if he can keep two GOP Senate seats up for grabs in next month’s Senate runoff in Georgia.  A Democratic win will give the party a majority 50 Senate seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking a tie.

In order to pick up the two GOP Senate seats, held by incumbent Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, Democrats must successfully mobilize voters and adequately fund the campaigns of Democrat Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnoc. At press time, millions of campaign dollars are pouring into Georgia’s Senate runoff elections, with the two GOP Senators bringing in more campaign donations because of Republican super-PACs giving them the spending edge. The Democrats are receiving their political contributions through small donors.

Even with the Democrats controlling the White House and House of Representatives, if McConnell maintains control of the Senate, legislative gridlock in the upper chamber will most certainly continue.  This will make it more difficult for the NCPSSM and other Washington, DC-based aging advocacy groups to successfully push for passage of legislation to ensure the financial security and health of seniors

Social Security – the Third Rail in Politics

Published in RINewsToday.com on May 17, 2020

As Congress begins to hammer out the fifth coronavirus stimulus package to continue its efforts to jump start the nation’s economy, President Donald Trump warns he will not sign any bill that does not include a payroll tax cut.

“We’re not doing anything without a payroll tax cut,” President Trump said at a two-hour “virtual town hall” event hosted by Fox News, at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C. According to Nielson Media Research, nearly 4 million viewers tuned into this the town hall, titled “America Together: Returning to Work,” on May 3rd, that focused on COVID-19 and the reopening of the nation’s economy.

Aging advocates and Democratic lawmakers charge that President Trump is using the virus pandemic as an excuse to slash payroll contributions, Social Security’s dedicated funding. Cutting the Social Security payroll taxes would reduce the amount of money withheld from employee paychecks, increasing their take-home pay. Republican lawmakers see it as a much-needed relief for hurting Americans. And so it goes…

Payroll Tax Cuts: Reducing Social Security’s Financial Stability

The Washington, DC-based National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM) quickly released a statement warning that removing the payroll tax by a provision in the next COVID-19 stimulus package will ensure the fiscal insolvency of Social Security. 64 million Americans depend on Social Security benefits in their retirement years.

“President Trump set off alarm bells for America’s seniors and their advocates by insisting once again on eliminating Social Security payroll taxes – both employer and worker contributions. The President even threatened to hold hostage the next phase of badly needed Coronavirus relief legislation unless he gets his reckless payroll tax cuts. Make no mistake: by pushing to cut off the program’s funding stream, President Trump is taking the first step toward dismantling Social

“While we agree that providing tax relief to middle class Americans is an important consideration as we respond to the coronavirus pandemic, we do not believe that cutting, eliminating or deferring the Social Security payroll tax is an appropriate way to accomplish this goal, says Richtman, reminding the president in a letter that Social Security is an earned benefit fully funded by the contributions of workers throughout their working lives.

He pointed out that a payroll tax cut is an assault on that fundamental idea, equally true even if the funds are replaced by general revenues from the Treasury.

In his correspondence, Richtman suggests that a payroll tax cut should not be viewed as an economic stimulus because it leaves out large segments of the population. “Large numbers of federal, state and local government workers do not pay into Social Security, and therefore would not benefit from the payroll tax cut. Ironically, the senior population, those who are directly affected by taking their money from the trust fund, will not see a single dime of relief since most of them are not working,” he notes.

Richtman identified alternatives to the payroll tax cut that he believes would be more targeted and effective to fire up an economy slowed by the spread of the coronavirus. “Another one-time payment by the federal government can put money in the hands of taxpayers quickly, and the Making Work Pay Tax Credit can be passed by Congress rapidly as can an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. Spending in other programs that directly help those who lose employment as a result of the virus can be the most targeted relief of all,” he suggests.

“In light of the recent Social Security Trustees report, it is clear that Social Security needs more revenue – not less,” observes Richtman, who served as a former staff director of the Senate Special Aging Committee.

While Democratic lawmakers push for strengthening and expanding the Social Security Program, GOP lawmakers are signaling their opposition to risking political capital on supporting the effort to cut the payroll tax. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the Senate Finance Committee chair, responded, when asked by Politico, if he supports the tax cut, “Right now, not much.”

“I’m going to give it due consideration, if I can see a strong group of people who think it’s the right thing to do,” added Grassley, whose Senate committee oversees federal tax policy.

Although Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) is not ruling out payroll tax cuts, he is focusing his efforts to put liability protections provisions in the next major stimulus package to protect businesses against virus-related lawsuits from workers, stockholders, and consumers.

Political insiders consider Social Security to be the “third rail of a nations politics.” Wikipedia states that this metaphor comes from the high-voltage third rail in some electric railway systems. Stepping on it usually results in electrocution and the use of the term in the political arena refers to “political death.”

Can President Trump politically survive, keeping his loyal voter base, if he steps on the “third rail” by continuing his efforts to cut payroll taxes, some say seen as pushing the Social Security program toward fiscal insolvency? When the dust settles after the upcoming November 2020 elections, we’ll see if the older voters consider Social Security an untouchable program.