Tag Archives for Fabrizio Ward

Georgia poll once again shows tightest races rest on Voters Over 50 

Published in RINewsToday on July 27, 2026

With just over three months until the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3, control of both the U.S. House and Senate chambers could hinge on the gray vote—Americans age 50 and older—one of the nation’s most reliable voting blocs.

That was the key takeaway message delivered during AARP’s July 23 virtual media briefing, where the Washington, D.C.-based organization released the findings of its latest bipartisan battleground-state survey examining Georgia’s closely watched and contested governor’s and U.S. Senate races.

According to AARP, Georgia is the second state in its 2026 battleground polling series, following Ohio, whose survey was released on June 25. Additional surveys are scheduled for Alaska, Arizona, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Texas to be released before the upcoming midterm elections.  The bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) was commissioned to conduct these surveys.

The Georgia poll findings suggest that voters age 50 and older are once again poised to play a very decisive role in determining the state’s election outcomes in one of the nation’s premier battleground states.

In Georgia’s May 19 primary election, voters age 50 and older cast 68% of all ballots. The survey also found that 88% of voters age 50 and older rated themselves a “10” on a 10-point motivation-to-vote scale, compared with 62% of voters under age 50. These findings reinforce a long-established demographic trend: older Americans remain among the nation’s most dependable and motivated voters and are likely to have a significant impact on the November election.

The Power of the Gray Vote

“Voters age 50 and older will decide this November’s Georgia races,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer, in announcing the poll’s release. “Candidates who speak directly to the issues these voters care about most—including rising prices, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and lowering health care costs—will have the greatest opportunity to earn their support,” she explained.

During the nearly 30-minute morning briefing, AARP Georgia State Director Vanessa Payne joined Republican pollster Bob Ward of Fabrizio Ward and Democratic pollster Matt Hogan of Impact Research to discuss the poll’s findings and what they reveal about the priorities of older Georgia voters. Jen Jones, AARP’s Vice President of Government Affairs, participated during the Q&A to address questions, particularly around Social Security and retirement security, drawing on broader AARP research beyond the Georgia polls.  Ilse Zuniga, AARP’s Director of External Relations, moderated this briefing.

According to the new AARP poll, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson, 48% to 46%, in the governor’s race, within the poll’s margin of error. Age remains one of the race’s defining dividing lines. Jackson leads by 13 percentage points among voters age 50 and older, driven by strong support from voters age 65 and older, while Bottoms holds a 23-point advantage among voters under age 50.

The survey also examined Georgia’s competitive U.S. Senate race, one which could prove critical in determining which party controls the Senate. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Republican Rep. Mike Collins, 52% to 43%. Ossoff enjoys a 30-point advantage among voters under age 50 and a narrow lead among voters ages 50 to 64, while Collins holds a 24-point advantage among voters age 65 and older. The poll’s findings found that age 50 and older remain a key swing constituency, while Ossoff leads among swing voters age 50 and older by 23 percentage points.

Opening the media briefing, Payne emphasized that AARP’s mission is not to predict election winners or tell voters how to cast their ballots.

“Our mission isn’t to tell people how to vote or who will win,” Payne said. “It’s to ensure that the priorities of Georgia’s voters age 50 and older, the largest and most reliable voting bloc in our state, are part of the conversation throughout the election season.”

Payne remarked that Georgia has become one of the nation’s most competitive battleground states, where narrow margins often decide statewide elections.

“One in eight voters over 50 are swing voters, making them one of the most influential voting blocs in this election,” she observed. “Georgians are focused on key issues affecting their daily lives—from protecting Social Security and Medicare to managing the rising cost of living. Candidates who understand those priorities will be best positioned to earn their votes,” she added.

Although older voters represent every political persuasion, Payne noted that they share many of the same concerns.

“What unites them isn’t party affiliation,” she said. “It’s a shared focus on protecting their financial security, maintaining their health and being able to live as independently as possible as they age.”

Democratic strategist Matt Hogan agreed with Payne that voters age 50 and older are likely to determine the outcome of Georgia’s upcoming midterm elections.

“Voters 50-plus will be the deciders in the Georgia election,” Hogan predicted. “The share who say they are extremely motivated to vote is 26 percentage points higher among voters 50-plus than among voters under 50,” he said.

Hogan also pointed to a significant shift in voter sentiment on the generic congressional ballot.

“Democrats now lead by a seven-point margin, with that shift especially pronounced among independents, who now favor Democrats by an 18-point margin on the generic ballot,” he said, noting “That’s a 26-point swing from 2024.”

“It’s Social Security & Medicare, Stupid”

 Turning to the issues driving older voters, Republican strategist Bob Ward stressed that financial security remains at the center of their concerns. “Seniors, those voters 65 and older, are equally concerned about immigration and protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are very much economic issues for older voters,” Ward explained.

“More than two-thirds of seniors tell us that Social Security makes up a major part of their income. It’s a big deal,” he added. “The importance of Social Security continues to rise to the top and will be just as influential on older voters this fall as rising prices,” he says.

Ward also noted broad bipartisan support for lowering prescription drug costs through Medicare.

“Fighting to lower prescription drug prices by expanding Medicare’s drug price negotiations is a winner on both sides of the political aisle,” Ward said, noting that 87 % of voters say they would be more likely to support a candidate who expands Medicare drug negotiations.

The poll found that among voters age 50 and older, 48% said Social Security is or will become a major source of household income. An overwhelming 92% said they would be more likely to support a candidate who will ensure they receive the Social Security benefits they earned through a lifetime of work.

Reflecting national polling trends, the survey findings indicated that grocery prices remain the affordability issue weighing most heavily on older Georgians.

“Voters in Georgia worry about the price of groceries more than any other issue, and that concern cuts across every political and demographic subgroup,” Ward said.

AARP’s poll also found respondents expressed a growing concern about the impact of expanding artificial intelligence data centers on household utility bills. Seventy-five percent expressed concern that new AI data centers could increase residential electric rates, while 85% said policymakers should ensure those costs are not passed on to residential utility customers.

A Final Note…

AARP’s Georgia battleground poll sends a clear message to candidates running for the U.S. Senate and Congress: older voters remain one of the nation’s most reliable and influential voting blocs. They vote consistently, they are highly motivated, and they are focused on issues that directly affect their financial security and quality of life.

AARP notes that in every election since 2002—the first year voting data by age became available—Americans age 65 and older have voted at higher rates than younger age groups.

Protecting Social Security and Medicare, lowering prescription drug costs, keeping groceries affordable, and controlling rising utility bills are not simply campaign talking points. For many older American voters, they are everyday concerns that will influence how they will cast their ballots in November.

Political observers have long referred to Social Security as the “third rail” of American politics. The phrase comes from the electrified third rail that powers many rail systems—touch it, and the consequences can be fatal. In politics, this metaphor suggests that proposals perceived as threatening Social Security can carry equally serious political consequences.  While people usually attribute the phrase to U.S. Sen.Tip O’Neill, William Safire documented in The New York Times that O’Neill’s chief counsel, Kirk O’Donnell, actually coined it.

As voters in Georgia, Ohio, and the other battleground states head to the polls this November, the 2026 midterm elections may once again test whether Social Security remains America’s political third rail. When the dust settles, we’ll see whether older voters reward candidates who they believe will protect Social Security and Medicare—or reject those they believe will weaken these programs.

AARP’s Georgia battleground poll,  conducted by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D), surveyed 1,060 likely Georgia voters between July 13 and July 16, 2026, using live telephone interviews and SMS-to-web methodology. According to the pollsters, the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

For more information, contact Kate Bridges at kbridges@aarp.org.

Additional information about AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series is available at  https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-polls/?msockid=31611274a2d760231f7a0578a3f86192.

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Seniors key to Democratic win

Published in RINewsToday on November 28, 2022

Just weeks before the midterm elections, Oct. 18th, AARP Rhode Island released a voting analysis of the Sept. 13th Rhode Island primary election, revealing that voters ages 50 + were the most powerful election deciders. More than 70% of Rhode Island’s older voters turned out to vote.  

A newly released Washington, DC-based AARP study found that older voters also had a major impact on 63 of the most competitive House races nationwide, including Rhode Island, in the mid-term elections. 

AARP’s post-election survey of voters should send a powerful message to Capitol Hill, that is “Don’t take the votes of seniors for granted.”

According to AARP’s voting analysis findings, voters 50 and over made-up 61% of the 2022 electorate in the targeted Congressional Districts. The predicted red wave sputtered because of older female voters, say the researchers. Democrats were able to win these districts because of the senior vote, particularly women over 65 who shifted away from voting GOP compared to their intensions from this summer.

The researchers found that President Biden’s job approval rebounded markedly, driven by voters aged 65+, particularly among women. When they looked at former President Trump’s approval rate, they found it had decreased among this same group.

AARP also noted that Black and Hispanic voters continued to drift to the GOP while Democrats continued to gain white, college age and female voters. 

AARP’s voting analysis study also found that in 63 most competitive House races that were also surveyed in July, voters age 65+ shifted from favoring Republican candidates 50% to 40%, to favoring Democrats 49% to 46% in November. The voting analysis found that Democrats came away with a 2-point lead over Republican candidates among voters overall (18+) and voters aged 50-64 leaned Republican by 8 points. Overall, voters 50+ accounted for 61% of the electorate in these key districts.

“Americans aged 50+ once again proved that they are the nation’s most powerful voters and they were the deciders in this year’s midterm elections,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer in a statement released with the 36-page report on Nov. 17, 2022. “They were crystal clear that they want elected officials to work together to address crucial issues that will ensure their health and financial security. Elected officials and candidates can’t afford to ignore this formidable group of voters and the issues that matter to them,” she notes.

Top concerns of older voters

According to AARP’s National Targeted Congressional District-post-election Survey, inflation and rising prices (33%) were the top concern for voters overall, followed by abortion (28%) and threats to democracy (25%).

The survey also showed differences in the issues most important to voters 50-64 vs. those age 65 and older. Inflation and rising prices were top of mind for the 50-64 age group. Among voters 65+, threats to democracy (30%), inflation (29%), and Social Security and Medicare (24%) topped the list, the study’s findings indicate.

The researchers also found that more than half of voters (53%) said they were worried about their personal financial situation, with 65% of those who voted Republican and 42% who voted Democrat said they were worried. 

The study’s report also noted that 70% voted more for the candidate they chose, rather than against the other candidate;  Independents and younger voters were more likely to say they voted against the other candidate.

The analysis also found that a majority (53%) voted for the candidate they thought would work in a bipartisan manner, while 42% preferred candidates they thought stayed true to their beliefs and stood firm in their positions. By 36 points, Democrats preferred candidates who they thought were bipartisan, while Republicans voted by a 25 point margin for candidates they thought would stay true to their beliefs.

Methodology

As to the study’s methodology, AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research to conduct this survey. The firms interviewed 2,353 adults in 63 of the U.S. House districts that Cook Political Report rated as “Lean” or “Toss Up” as of Nov. 7, 2022. This included a sample of 1,903 2022 general election voters distributed across the districts and 450 adults who did not vote in the 2022 general election. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web between November 9-10, 2022.

AARP’s statement noted that approximately 30 voter interviews were conducted in each congressional district and any non-voters who were encountered were also interviewed. The overall sample was weighted by age, gender race and education to be representative of the adult population in the 63 congressional districts based on demographic data from the U.S. Census and consumer data. The voter sample was weighted on congressional vote choice to match 2022 election results.

To see the completed research results, go to:

Click to access aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-post-election-voter-survey.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.046.pdf

Older Georgian Voters Key to Winning Senate Runoff Election

Published in the Pawtucket Times on December 21, 2020

Weiss Both Democrats and Republicans know that the proverbial clock is ticking.  It’s 15 days before the Georgia’s Senate runoff election scheduled for Jan. 15.   At press time, 1,336,136 registered Georgia voters have gone to the polls, says the U.S. Election Project.   The percent turnout of registered voters is 17.5 percent.    

Although Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden beat President Trump to take the White House and the House Democrats maintain a very slim majority in their chamber, GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can still block Democratic legislative proposals by controlling the upper chamber’s agenda.  He must keep two GOP Senate seats up for grabs in next month’s U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia.  A Democratic win will give the party a majority 50 Senate seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking a tie.  In order to pick up the two GOP Senate seats, held by incumbent Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, Democrats must successfully mobilize voters and adequately fund the campaigns of the Democrat candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnoc. 

Capturing Georgia’s Senior Vote 

A new poll, released on Dec. 11 by AARP Georgia, predicts that age 50 and over voters may well bring the two Democratic Senate candidates to Capitol Hill.  Social Security, Medicare and Nursing home protections are key issues for these older voters, says the pollsters.

 The survey of 1,250 2020 Georgia voters, including 857 age 50-plus voters and an oversample of 358 Black voters age 50-plus, was conducted on behalf of AARP by the bipartisan team of Fabrizio Ward and Hart Research Associates between Nov. 30 and Dec. 4, 2020.  The telephone/cell phone poll results were published in a 11-page report, “50+ Voters and the Georgia State Runoff Elections.”   

According to AARP Georgia’s bipartisan poll, both U.S. Senate races are statistically tied, with Democrat Jon Ossoff (48 precent) narrowly leading Republican incumbent David Perdue (46 percent) and Democrat Raphael Warnock (47 percent) edging out Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler (46 percent). But among voters age 50 and over, the poll shows both the Republican candidates lead their Democratic challenger by identical margins, 53 percent for Perdue and Loeffler versus 42 percent for Ossoff and Warnock. Just percent of the voters are undecided.

Further, the poll found majorities of Republicans and Democrats age 50 and over are more likely to vote for a candidate advocating for policies that protect older Americans, like using Medicare’s buying power to help lower drug prices. “These results show that both races are a dead heat and time is running out for candidates to address the concerns of 50-plus voters,” said AARP Georgia State Director Debra Tyler-Horton in a statement announcing the release of the poll’s results. “To win, candidates must discuss the issues that matter to 50-plus Georgians now – like preventing cuts to Social Security and Medicare, lowering drug prices and protecting seniors in nursing homes,” she says.  

Georgia’s Republican and Democratic 50-plus voters told the pollsters that they are much more or somewhat more likely to support a Senate candidate who advocates to protect Medicare (Republicans 83 percent, Democrats 96 percent) and to allow the national health insurance program to negotiate with drug companies (Republicans 93 percent, Democrats 94 percent).  The survey’s respondents also wanted Congress to protect Social Security (Republicans 90 percent. Democrats 93 percent). 

Additionally, the older survey respondents call for more protections for nursing home residents during COVID-19 (Republicans 79 percent, Democrats 95 percent).  They want Congress for providing tax credits for family caregivers to help offset costs (Republicans 69 percent, Democrats 90 percent), and support the strengthening of federal age discrimination laws (Republicans 53 percent, Democrats 81 precent). 

As to today’s COVID-19, pandemic, the AARP Georgia survey findings indicate that older Georgian’s willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19 has increased a substantial 14 points—from 41 percent to 55 percent—since September, when over half said they would not agree to be vaccinated.  And two in five 50-plus voters told pollsters that nursing home safety is “extremely important” to them in 2020.  It’s especially important to Black voters (53 percent), people who know someone who died from COVID-19 (51 percent), and to those who worry a lot about getting COVID-19 (48 percent). 

NCPSSM to Encourage Turnout of Older Georgia Voters

Recognizing the importance of mobilizing Georgia’s older voters, the Washington, DC-based National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (NCPSSM) announced the launching of a voter outreach campaign in the Peach State to encourage turnout and promote Democratic Senate candidates Warnock and Ossof as advocates for the state’s seniors. The campaign includes radio ads in the Atlanta market, postcard mailings to thousands of National Committee members and supporters throughout the state, and social media outreach to the Georgia’s voters.The National Committee has made a five-figure advertising buy on three Atlanta radio stations beginning December 15th through the runoff election on January 5th. 

“Only two candidates are ready to put Georgia seniors’ health and economic well-being first, Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock,” the radio ad tells voters.  Postcards are being mailed to more than 7,000 National Committee members in Georgia, bearing the message, “Your best future starts with your vote for John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.”

“We need the leadership, vision and determination of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff to fight for seniors in the U.S. Senate. They will work to protect Social Security and Medicare from harmful proposals to cut the benefits Georgians have earned.  They will be voices to strengthen the critical lifelines of Social Security and Medicare during the COVID pandemic, when older Georgians are counting on their earned benefits more than ever,” said Max Richtman, NCPSSM’s president and CEO.  “Georgia has 1.3 million Social Security beneficiaries and 1.8 million Medicare enrollees.  The average Social Security benefit in Georgia is $1,500 per month.  Those benefits provide $45.3 billion in annual economic stimulus to communities across the state, he notes.

While Warnock and Ossoff earned the National Committee’s endorsement by making it clear that they will standup to protect and strengthen Social Security, the incumbent GOP Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler have paid lip service to protecting Social Security, says Richtman.  As U.S. Senators, they have supported GOP positions of cutting the benefits of future beneficiaries and deferring Social Security’s payroll tax last August that will force workers to repay those funds back in early 2021, he says.

Controlling the Senate’s Legislative Agenda

“Wins by Warnock and Ossoff would not only be a victory for Georgians. It would give President-elect Biden and his party the power in the U.S. Senate to actually get things done for seniors after four years of obstruction, says Richtman.

For a copy of AARP Georgia’s poll findings, go to:
https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2020/2020-election-battleground-states-senate-georgia-runoff-election.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00401.029.pdf