Tag Archives for Wendy J. Schiller

AARP poll says older women’s vote a “Wild Card” in upcoming election

Pubished in RINewsToday on February 26, 2024.

According to a newly released AARP public opinion poll, women voters age 50 and older are the biggest wild card vote in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, divided almost evenly on their preferred presidential candidate. But these voters express common concerns about their financial wellbeing, political bickering and gridlock, and the overall future direction of the nation.

With woman voters politically split, Democratic and Republican political consultants will most certainly analyze the poll’s findings to the reshape their strategies to win the White House and take control of Congress. The national on-line survey was conducted Jan. 10–21, 2024, polling 2,001 likely women voters age 50 and over and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

AARP’s poll findings detailed in “2024 She’s the Difference: The Wildcard of the 2024 Election” released on Feb. 22, indicated that in head-to-head matchup, 43% of women age 50+ respondents said they would vote for Donald Trump in an election today, while 46% said Joe Biden. In a generic Congressional ballot, Republicans and Democrats are tied at 45%, say the researchers.

Conducted with national pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero, the AARP survey of the 2024 Likely Electorate, shows Biden does particularly well among women 65+, winning this group over Trump by a 7-point margin, while women aged 50-64 are more likely to say they are undecided (15%). However, overall, these voters are dissatisfied with the country’s political leaders, and nearly half (48%) are worried about the upcoming election. They are likely to feel they are not being heard by the country’s political  leaders — 75% say politicians in Washington don’t listen to the views of people like them.

“Women aged 50 and over are one of the most consequential and influential voting groups in this election,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer in a Feb. 22 statement announcing the release of the survey’s findings detailed in the 10-page report. “Women in this voting bloc are concerned about America’s future, their own financial security, wellbeing, and our nation’s political divisiveness. And yet, they are not a monolithic group. Candidates who want to win in 2024 should pay attention to the concerns they share, and the concerns that differ,” notes LeaMond.

During a press call scheduled after the release of AARP’s poll data, LeaMond reinforced the point that woman were fairly evenly divided by party and ideology, and they tend to fall more in the center than their male counterparts.  She also emphasized that there’s bipartisan support for policies that help family caregivers, and said AARP plans to ask every candidate running for public office: “What’s your position on Social Security? And what’s your position on family caregiving?”

AARP’s survey  found that women voters 50+ have serious worries about their financial security.  When asked to choose the two biggest issues facing the nation  today, cost of living tops their list, with 38% citing it a top issue, followed by immigration (32%), threats to democracy (20%), and political division (16%).

The survey’s findings also indicated that half (51%) say they are not confident they will be better off financially a year from now. Among those currently working, 54% don’t think they will have enough money to retire at the age they would like to.  Finally, almost half (48%) say their own personal financial situation is falling short of what they expected at this point in their lives.

A large percentage of the survey respondents expressed their fears about the future of the nation. Seven-in-ten (70%) think the country is on the wrong track, and nearly half (47%) think America’s best days are behind us, while only 27% say the best days are ahead.

AARP’s survey also found that only 19% think the nation will become more stable in the year ahead, while 46% think it will become less so, citing government dysfunction resulting from political gridlock (63%), the economy (58%), political division and partisanship (55%), crime (55%), and the situation at the southern border (53%) as the top issues driving this instability.

Finally, the poll findings indicate that only 28% of women 50+ expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 42%  expect the economy to get worse.

Many women 50+ respondents feel pulled by a wide range of demands, especially caregiving, and that their personal lives aren’t what they expected at this stage of their life.  A third (32%) respondents say that their overall enjoyment in life falls short of what they expected. Many say they are stressed (34%) and worried (32%) when they were asked about how they feel about their life today.

Over seven-in-ten of the respondents noted they are currently a family caregiver (21%) or have been a caregiver (50%) to a parent, partner/spouse, or adult child. Among current unpaid caregivers, more than a third (36%) are also still working.

Across political affiliations, caregiving was viewed as a key political issue to be addressed inside the Beltway. Women voters overall (82%) and women voters 50+ (84%) overwhelmingly see a need for elected officials to provide more support for seniors and caregivers.

 “Women aged 50 plus are not easy to pin down into a single stereotype,” said Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights. “We know they’re frustrated with the way things are going, don’t believe their voices are being heard, and are worried about the future of the country. Even when they say they feel satisfied with some things in their own lives, they remain very worried about cost of living and our nation’s deep political divisions,” she said.

“While women over 50 might be looking for more ways to stay connected compared to voters overall, they are more likely to be dissatisfied with the amount of time spent with family,” adds Margie Omero, principal at GBAO. “They are less likely to make their voices heard, and are also less likely to feel listened to. Given the size and importance of this group, political leaders should put in the work to stay attuned to these voters’ needs and how to best reach them,” said Margie Omero, principal at GBAO, she said.

Woman’s Political Clout Can Win Elections

According to AARP, women aged 50 and over are one of the largest, most reliable voting blocs. While U.S. Census Bureau data shows they are a little over one-quarter (25.5%) of the voting age population and 28% of registered voters, a study by Pew Research Center found that they casted one-third (33%) of ballots in the 2022 election. 

Political insiders also know they are the largest bloc of swing voters. In 2022, AARP polling showed women 65+ in battleground Congressional districts moved from favoring Republican candidates by 2 points in July 2022, to favoring Democrats by 14 points in November 2022 – a 16-point shift that contributed to the narrowness of the Republican House majority.

According to Wendy J. Schiller, is a Professor of Political Science, Brown University and serves as a political analyst for WJAR10, the local NBC affiliate in Providence and WPRO radio, the gender gap in presidential elections still persists giving Democrats an average 9% advantage over Republicans among all women, but when you break that down, you do see some differences across age and other demographics.  Women of color, especially Black women, tend to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and white women are more evenly divided according to their geography, religion, and marital status.  “In recent years, suburban women voters who used to be more typically Republican have shifted their votes to a slight majority for the Democrats, starting with Obama and continuing through Trump and Biden.   Voters over 65 have the highest turnout at about 72% so winning or losing women in this age category can be crucial to an election outcome,” she says. 

Schiller notes that abortion access is an issue that resonates with women of all ages, and that has become a much larger issue since the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.  “The immediate reaction among the GOP controlled states was to severely restrict abortion access to 6 weeks, although those efforts have been mitigated by state ballot initiatives in states like Ohio and Kansas.  Now we see with Alabama how far-reaching Dobbs is in terms of things related to defining life; the super majority Republican legislature of Alabama is now scrambling to preserve the right to fertility treatments whose aim is to create life, not end it,” she says.

“And Donald Trump is expected to announce his support for a national ban on abortion after 16 weeks, which is a political move designed to both preserve the right to abortion but also limit it nationally in states where that time frame is longer (20 weeks).  These moves are a clear sign that the GOP knows there may be an electoral cost they will pay for Dobbs in 2024, especially among women,” adds Schiller. 

“The lingering presence of Nikki Haley as a female challenger to Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary has clearly irritated him, and we will see what his victory speech in South Carolina does to his standing with women in the next national polls that come out,” says Schiller.  

Women and Aging Issues

Recent polling indicating that women — especially women over 50 — are concerned about their financial future this election year is not surprising,” says Max Richman, President and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. “We have long advocated for improved retirement security for women,” he says.

“On average, women do not enjoy the same level of retirement security as men, due to historic wage inequality and uncompensated time off caring for family members.  Women also tend to live longer than men, meaning that their retirement income and savings must be stretched over a longer period of time, Richtman notes.

According to Richtman, this election is crucial for women’s retirement security, because the two parties’ approaches to Social Security are so divergent. President Biden has called on Congress to expand and strengthen Social Security.  “Congressional Democrats have introduced legislation to enhance the program, which would boost benefits for all retirees, with special increases for widows and widowers and beneficiaries over 85 years of age,” he says, noting that Democrats have also proposed new caregiver credits that would increase Social Security benefits for those who take time out of the workforce to care for loved ones.

“On the other side of the aisle, Republicans have repeatedly proposed to cut Social Security by raising the retirement age, means testing, and adopting a more miserly COLA formula — all of which would be detrimental to women in retirement. After years of financial inequality, it is time for women to enjoy a level of retirement security on par with men. And this year, the choice for women at the ballot box could not be clearer,” states Richtman.

According to Well-Know Rhode Island political analyst, Joe Fleming, confirms that female voters will be key in this election. In 2020 Biden did extremely well with this group and retain them to win re-election. “There is no question that suburban women will be key, if Biden is to win the suburbs he must have support from these female voters,” says Fleming.

“The issue of abortion plays very well with female voters and does not have a personal impact on female voters over 50 but, I believe it still has a major impact on them. We have seen this in states that had abortion questions on the ballot and in some red state” notes Fleming.

However, Fleming warns that one must keep in mind that the election is many months away and voters opinions change over time. 

American Political Scientist Darrell M.West agrees with Fleming assessment that woman voters will be key in electing the next president. “Women will make up a majority of the electorate in 2024 so will play an outsized role in who wins. Suburban women will be especially crucial because they have been swing voters in recent elections. Whoever wins that group likely will be the next president,” says Darrell West, Senior Fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation of the Governance Studies program at the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institute.  His research focuses on media, technology, and elections.

To view the full poll findings, visit www.aarp.org/shesthedifference.

To access all of Herb’s articles published by RINewstoday, go to https://rinewstoday.com/herb-weiss/

RI Gubernatorial Forum to ask, “what’s your Senior Agenda”

Published in RINewsToday on August 1, 2022

The Senior Agenda Coalition of RI (SACRI) has joined 17 organizations to bring you Rhode Island’s 2022 Gubernatorial Forum where candidates will talk about senior issues. The event is scheduled for Wednesday, August 3, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. at the East Providence High School’s new 900-seat capacity auditorium. Seating is limited to 450 people, leaving space for social distancing. Doors will open at 9:30 a.m. At press time, 350 seniors and aging advocates have registered to attend in person or virtually.    

“Senior issues must be viewed as a public policy priority because Rhode Island’s older population is growing dramatically,” says Bernard J. Beaudreau, SACRI’s Exec. Director, and one of the event’s organizers. According to Beaudreau, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that the state’s total population of 65 years and older has grown by 20% from 152,183 in 2010 to 182,486 in 2020, adding 30,303 people in this age group. Rhode Island’s statewide planning projections also indicate that people sixty-five and older will grow to over 247,000 by 2030, an increase of 65,000 seniors over the 2020 census.

Gubernatorial candidates to delineate positions on key Senior Issues

“During the 90-minute forum, the gubernatorial candidates will share their positions on seven questions, hammered out by event cosponsors, as to how they would address a variety of policy issues impacting older Rhode Islanders,” says Beaudreau.  “Attendees will learn how candidates would rebuild and sustain a viable workforce for nursing homes and homecare providers. They will also be asked about their plans for Medicaid rebalancing and expansion to improve home and community-based care opportunities while ensuring the financial viability of nursing homes,” he says. 

Beaudreau says the forum also gives the gubernatorial candidates an opportunity to detail their strategies on how resources can be increased to significantly support healthy aging in the community. They will be asked by the moderator what type of assistance will be given to low-income seniors, and will they support a yearly cost-of-living adjustment to the state SSI payment and increase eligibility for the Medicare Savings Programs for seniors and people with disabilities to at least 185% FPL.

The attendees will also learn how the candidates, if elected governor, will ensure that an adequate amount of the $250 million in funding for affordable housing is allocated for seniors and how they will work to ensure equal access to high quality healthcare and information about available health care resources.

Finally, the gubernatorial candidates will be asked to make a pledge to address the needs of Rhode Island’s older population and provide the leadership and resources necessary to create and implement a Rhode Island Strategic Plan on Aging.

Recognizing the political clout of Seniors

“SACRI’s upcoming Gubernatorial Candidates’ Forum is important as older adults historically have high turnout in elections and the Forum provides an opportunity to hear the candidates’ views on issues important to seniors,” says Maureen Maigret, Chair of the Long-Term Care Coordinating Council’s Aging in Community Subcommittee. “The Forum should cause candidates to take a serious look at the state’s demographics, to note how the older population is growing, and to reflect on how government can best support older adults’ desire to remain healthy and living in the community and provide quality facility care when needed,” says Maigret.

“The Forum allows us to set forth policy priorities and hold whoever is elected accountable for addressing them. An example of this is when former Governor Raimondo was elected. She had been presented with priorities for restoring budget cuts to senior services such as Meals on Wheels and some of the cuts were restored in her budgets,” Maigret noted.

SACRI’s Beaudreau says that the senior vote will influence the outcome of the upcoming primary and mid-term. “Rhode Island seniors 60 years of age and older represent 34% of all registered voters and accounted for 42% of the vote in the 2020 general election. Rhode Island seniors have higher voter participation rates than the rest of the population,” says Beaudreau, this being 77% compared to 57% for voters under 60 years of age. “We have a powerful voice to be exercised to impact public policy,” he says.

Political pundit Wendy J. Schiller sees seniors as a crucial voting bloc in American politics. “On average, 72% of voters over the age of 65 turn out to vote in presidential elections, as compared to about 48.6% of voters under the age of 30. Seniors are consistent and typically well-informed voters on issues concerning Social Security and Medicare,” says Schiller, Royce Family Professor of Teaching Excellence in Political Science and Director of the Taubman Center on American Politics and Policy, Brown University. 

According to Schiller, in the past 3 elections, “seniors have split about 55-56% for the Republicans, and 45-46% for Democrats. Seniors have been viewed as more conservative (Sun City AZ, the Villages FL) but the data do not really bear that out as you can see. There is a tilt, but not a full lean toward the GOP; this midterm season might be different though. If the 22 midterm elections were held tomorrow, you might expect to see even a bigger swing toward GOP candidates than usual because of inflation alone. Inflation is just one area where there is a gap in issue concerns between older and younger voters. Older voters worry a great deal about inflation eating into their savings and pensions that are not adjusted for inflation while younger voters may be as concerned with climate change and abortion rights as much or even more than they are worried about inflation,” she says.  

Schiller says that seniors are like all other voters in that they are highly influenced by their political party affiliation, even in cases where the party proposes policies that run against their interests. “The GOP has proposed cutting Medicare ever since it was created, most recently under President Trump, but they are not careful to say that such cuts would not affect current recipients or even people aged 55 or over and the majority of seniors voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Democrats ran into some trouble with seniors when Bernie Sanders and others proposed Medicare for All because seniors thought it would dilute their own services through Medicare, and/or raise their premiums,” adds Schiller.      

Adds well-known Rhode Island Political Strategist, Rob Horowitz, “As a group, seniors vote more regularly than any other age group. In the 2020 presidential election, for example, more than 3-in-4 people eligible voters between the ages of 65 to 74 voted as compared to about 2-in-4 eligible voters between the ages of 18 to 24. Since Rhode Island has an older population, seniors are a key group in pretty much every state and local election.  Winning campaigns in Rhode Island and throughout the nation devote time and advertising dollars to reaching seniors.”

According to Bob Weiner, former chief of staff director of the House Select Committee on Aging under Florida Congressman Claude Pepper and former spokesman for both the Clinton and Bush White Houses, no one can forget the clout of older voters because they are the most motivated demographic group to vote. “They can’t be broken out by political parties as people expect,” observes Weiner, noting that it is a very close 50-50 split vote. “Older voters vote Democratic and Republican; the Democrats must do more to capture the senior vote.  It’s close. In 2020, while Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, Donald Trump won the senior vote 52% to 47%. It’s not a matter of party. Seniors’ quality of life is not political,” he says.

“But on the issues, they will tear apart a candidate who doesn’t support Social Security, Medicare and the rights of seniors to have continued employment and privileges in society,” Weiner notes.

“So, anybody who thinks they can get away with some horrible position, such as cutting back Social Security or Medicare in five years or utilizing the myth that Social Security is in deficit crisis, they can’t  because it has a 2 trillion surplus resulting from Claude Pepper negotiations to keep the program fully solvent through 2034,” Weiner says, noting that it only needs a “little repair” to keep it going.    

“Anybody who thinks that they are going to use Social Security and seniors to fund other federal government operations is badly mistaken,” says Weiner. “When President Bush wanted to privatize Medicare and Social Security and made a campaign out of that he actually helped lose congressional seats in an off-year election,” said Weiner, warning political candidates to think twice when thinking about balancing the federal budget on the backs of the nation’s elderly. 

“Voting Gives You Power”

“In Rhode Island and across the country, the data clearly show that voters aged 50+ will be the deciders in the 2022 elections,” said AARP Rhode Island State Director Catherine Taylor. “We are working with dozens of advocacy volunteers who are fighting for voters 50+ to make their voices heard on the issues that matter – especially in Rhode Island where we are in the midst of a housing crisis, nursing homes are in jeopardy, the cost of long-term care is skyrocketing and where people want leaders who are committed to making local communities more livable.

“At the federal level, older voters want to know candidates’ positions on protecting and strengthening the Social Security benefits Americans have paid into and earned through years of hard work, protecting and improving Medicare benefits, lowering prescription drug prices, and supporting family caregivers who risk their careers and financial futures to care for parents, spouses, and other loved ones,” Taylor said.

“Voting gives you the power to decide what our future looks like,” she continued “But you have to be in the know to vote. AARP Rhode Island has collected the most up-to-date election information, including key dates and deadlines, to make sure that the voices of voters 50+ are heard. We are doing everything we can to make sure older Rhode Islanders are prepared to vote and know the safe and secure voting options included in the new, AARP Rhode Island-backed Let RI Vote Act. In mid-August, we will offer a Video Voter Guide posted along with all the latest election information at aarp.org/RIvotes,” Taylor said.

Co-sponsoring this event is a broad coalition of 18 service providers and advocates: 

A Community Together, Alzheimer’s Association of RI, Carelink, Community Partners Network of RI, Economic Progress Institute, Leading Age RI, NAACP Providence Branch, Ocean State Center for Independent Living, PACE, Progreso Latino, RI Assisted Living Association, RI Elder Info, RI Health Care Association, RI Organizing Project, RI Senior Centers Directors Association, SEIU Healthcare 1199, Senior Agenda Coalition of RI and Village Common of RI.

in the high school’s new 900-seat capacity auditorium. 

To read AARP web blog articles discussing the impact of senior voters at the polls, go to: 

www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2022/older-voters-midterm-issues.html

www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

https://press.aarp.org/2022-4-6-Women-Voters-Age-50-Over-Will-Decide-Balance-Power-Next-Election