Trump’s Campaign Pledges Could impact Social Security’s Financial Stability

Published in Blackstone Valley Call & Times on November 4, 2024

When voters go to the polls on Tuesday, they should know that Social Security will only be nine years away from insolvency when the next President takes office.  According to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the law calls for a 23 percent cut in Social Security reductions in fiscal year 2034.  Restoring solvency in the retirement program over the next 75 years would require the equivalent of reducing all future benefits by 24 percent or increasing revenue by 35 percent, says CBO.

As the presidential campaign winds down, with voting taking place on Nov. 4, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris calls for protecting and expanding Social Security while former President Trump says would “fight for and protect Social Security.” But both candidates don’t provide a specific detail plan as to how to  fix the financially ailing Social Security program, despite the looming $16,500 cut facing a typical couple retiring just before the projected insolvency.

But campaign promises, if enacted, can have a devastating impact on the Social Security Programs ability to pay all future benefits.

Analysis Shows Campaign Promises Weaken Social Security

A new report, “What Would the Trump Campaign’s Mean for Social Security,” released by US Budget Watch 2024, a project the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), details how former President Donald Trump’s proposed policies, if enacted, would advance Social Security’s insolvency by three years, from FY 2034 to FY 2031 – hastening the next President’s insolvency timeline by one-third.  CRFB is a non-partisan government watchdog group based in Washington, D.C. that analyses the fiscal impact of federal budget and fiscal issues.

According to CRFB’s new report, released on Oct. 21, 2024, Trump campaign pledges  would weaken Social Security’s financial stability by ending taxation of Social Security benefits. This would eliminate a revenue stream currently used to help finance Social Security. If enacted, the analysis notes that Trump’s plans would increase Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through FY 2035. Additionally, ending all taxes on overtime pay and tips, would also reduce the payroll taxes accruing to the Social Security trust funds.

CRFB’s analysis also predicted that Trump’s policies would worsen Social Security’s finances by increasing Social Security’s annual shortfall by roughly 50 percentin FY 2035, from 3.6 to 4 percent of payroll.

Trump’s calls for large tariffs on imports, which would either increase cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) through higher inflation or reduce taxable payroll would impact the financial viability of the Social Security program.  Enhancing boarder security and deporting unauthorized immigrants would reduce the number of immigrant workers paying into the Social Security Trust funds.

CRFB also questions whether Trump’s fixes would reduce Social Security’s long-term shortfalls.

From the Sideline…

According to Aimee Picchi is associate managing editor for CBS MoneyWatch, the personal finance website received a statement from Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt disputing the CRFB analysis: “The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term,” she said.

Additionally,  Leavitt told CBS  Money Watch that Trump’s plans for “unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies” would put Social Security “on a stronger footing for generations to come.”

“President Trump has said he would close Social Security’s long-term shortfall by increasing drilling for oil and natural gas and by growing the economy. However, we’ve shown that increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on Social Security – even if the gains were deposited into the trust fund. We’ve also shown that it would require unrealistically fast economic growth to close Social Security’s existing long-term funding gap,” says CRFB’s analysis. .

“Faster growth can reduce Social Security’s shortfall [says Trump]. But based on available analyses and understanding the effects of President Trump’s agenda on the national debt, it is unlikely his plans would significantly boost the size of the economy, and many estimates find his plans would reduce long-term out-put long-term output,” adds CRFB.

Responding to CRFB’s analysis, in a statement Harris-Walz 2024 spokesperson Joseph Costello said: “Vice President Harris is committed to protecting Social Security benefits and is the only candidate who will actually fight for seniors, not just pay them lip service on the campaign trail. 

Expand Social Security Caucus House Co-Chairs Reps. John B. Larso (D -CT), Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), and Debbie Dingell (D – MI) )call Trump’s campaign pledges “a no starter.”  If implemented, they would eliminate revenue streams used to help finance Social Security and accelerate the depletion of Social Security funding,” they say.

“Maintaining the solvency of Social Security is vital for promoting economic security, and a moral obligation to honor the commitments made to those who have contributed to the system throughout their working lives. To safeguard the future of Social Security, we cannot allow for Trump’s policies to gut these hard-earned benefits and instead must engage in a simple reform like the Social Security 2100 Act that fixes insolvency by having the wealthy pay into the system the same as everyone else,” note the Co-Chairs.

And Max Richtman, President and CEO, National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, gives his thought’s to Trump’s campaign pledges: “We oppose his proposal to eliminate the taxes on benefits that help to fund the system, and any other measure that would deprive Social Security of much needed revenue,” he says.

“Once again, Trump postures as a friend of the working class, then puts forward plans that endanger the benefits working people have earned — and depend on in retirement. It is irresponsible for a presidential candidate to advocate plans that would hasten the depletion of the Social Security trust fund reserves, triggering an even larger automatic benefit cut if that happens,” adds Richtman.

According to Richtman, Trump’s plans reveal his “overall recklessness” with Social Security. “He suspended the payroll tax that funds the program during Covid — and hoped it would be eliminated.  His White House budgets would have slashed Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) by billions of dollars.  He said earlier this year that he was ‘open’ to ‘cutting entitlements,’ then tried to walk it back. He once called Social Security a ‘Ponzi Scheme,” he adds.

“Time and again, Trump has chosen political expediency without considering – or caring about – the consequences. Despite his posturing, Donald Trump is no friend to Social Security or American seniors,” charges Richtman.

Looking Back on Efforts to Fix Social Security

“The history and reasoning in both Congress and the White House on protecting Social Security is still important and persuasive– as it was to President Obama, and House and Senate leaders Pelosi and Reid,” says Robert Weiner, former chief of Staff of the House Aging Committee and later a  White House senior staffer

“The great Claude Pepper helped forge the Reagan-O’Neill-Pepper deal of 1983 that stopped cuts and even partial insolvency through 2034,” says Weiner, noting that he remembers Pepper saying “over my dead body” to cabinet officers and congressional leaders who wanted to impose severe cuts. 

Weiner noted that Nancy Pelosi said  “First, do no harm” to the would-be cutters right through all the years of her Speakership and leadership. “’We did that’ to stopping the Social Security cutters, she told Weiner. 

Senate Leader Harry Reid’s staff removed the term ‘reform’ from his Social Security talking points when they were given the documents and realized that the program has a surplus, not a deficit,” noted Weiner. “These great leaders knew that Social Security ‘reform’ meant cuts, breaking Social Security’s promise to American seniors, and that the deficit was a myth and excuse to take from the program and its two-trillion-plus dollar surplus,” he said. 

“And House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told me that congressional leaders knew that, if necessary, if the time comes, and it’s not now, a slight tweak by Congress to raise the income level for tax payments could fix it, if necessary, if the growing economy hadn’t already maintained full solvency,” says Weiner.

“Let’s hope this kind of sanity and sensitivity continues to prevail,” Weiner concludes.

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-trump-campaign-plans-mean-social-security

Advocates call for Governor to reject budget cuts they say would harm older adults

Published in RINewsToday on Oct. 28, 2024

As the state’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) holds its Revenue & Caseload Estimate Conference to discuss the economic and revenue outlook for the upcoming legislative session, the Senior Agenda Coalition of RI (SACRI) warns of “onerous budget cuts” proposed by state agencies overseeing programs and services for Rhode Islanders. At press time, the state’s Medicaid and the Office of Healthy Aging offices proposed 7.5 percent budget cuts to be included in the upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget. 

“It is unconscionable that at a time when our older population is growing – projected to reach one out of every four Rhode Islanders in a few years — to propose budget cuts for programs proven to keep them healthy and safe and that in the long term can save taxpayers money,” says SACRI Board Chair, Diane Santos.

According to Santos, the requests put forward by the Office of Healthy Aging (OHA) include a reduction in state funds for the Meals on Wheels home-delivered meals program projected to cause 13,000 fewer meals to be delivered to persons unable to shop and prepare meals; cuts in funding for local Senior Centers and programs for older adults; elimination of grants to provide security services in elderly housing; and decreased funding to support the Elderly Transportation program. 

Santos warns that proposed changes in Medicaid eligibility guidelines are projected to cause hundreds of vulnerable older adults and persons with disabilities to lose state Medicaid coverage for their nursing home care and cause nursing homes, many of which are already struggling financially and face critical worker shortages, to lose millions of dollars if implemented. In addition, changes in the Medicaid CNOM (Costs Not Otherwise Matchable) program could reduce federal dollars that match state funding and impact hundreds of persons receiving home care and adult day services that help keep them living at home, the proposed cuts could result in greater spending in other areas.

For example, says Maureen Maigret, SACRI Policy Advisor, “Brown University researchers have shown that funds spent on home-delivered meals can delay or even prevent costly nursing home care.”

Over the years, Maigret noted that SACRI has worked to boost state funding to communities to assist them to operate local senior centers and programs. These serve hundreds of older adults and families across the state with a wide range of programs that keep older adults healthy, informed and connected to their communities, she noted.

SACRI has called for the state’s budget to provide ten dollars for each person aged 65 and over to Rhode Island’s 39 cities and towns, says Maigret, calculating that this amounts to about $20 per older adult. “The proposed cuts now being considered fail to recognize the increased need for these services due to the significant growth of our older population,” says Maigret.

Drawing a line in the sand

At press time, SACRI and its partners delivered a letter to Gov. McKee urging him to not balance the state budget on the back of Rhode Island’s older adults, stressing that the “potential ripple impact on families will be significant.

“Nonprofits and those who will be impacted need to know that SACRI and its partners are closely watching this process and are ready to advocate to protect programs and services which may impact our varied constituencies,” says Carol Anne Costa, SACRI Executive Director.

Costa continued, “The fastest growing demographic in RI is people over the age of 65. That is an obstinate fact. And cuts to the budget must be re-prioritized.” The Office of the State Ombudsman agreed, “If anything, OHA should be getting an increase, as they manage to complete all of their obligations on a shoestring budget. And kudos to Maria Cimini and her team at OHA for the outstanding work they do,” says Kathleen Heren, the RI Ombudsman.

Costa noted that OHA is Rhode Island’s designated state unit on aging. It serves as the chief advocate for older Rhode Islanders, adults living with disabilities, and family caregivers. “Prioritizing reductions in spending in areas not directly tied to OHA’s core mission or that would not harm vulnerable older adults and persons with disabilities dependent on Medicaid to meet their long-term care needs is clearly a place to start [in determining budget cuts]. Administrative expenses and the millions of dollars being paid out to consultants could be heavily scrutinized for budget reductions,” she says. 

Adds Mirelle Sayaf, Executive Director of Ocean State Center for Independent Living (OSCIL), “The proposed budget cuts pose a serious threat to the mission of the OSCIL, which is dedicated to supporting individuals with disabilities. Reducing funding, along with changes to Medicaid eligibility and essential programs, will harm those we serve. These cuts jeopardize vital services such as home care, nutritional support, and community engagement initiatives that empower individuals to live independently and maintain their quality of life.”

“Cutting the budget for the OHA when its resources are already extremely stressed to fully meet the needs of a growing older population is unjustified,” charges SACRI’s Maigret, who is also a former Director of the Department of Elderly Affairs.”

Maigret also opposes changes to Medicaid eligibility after advocates have spent years to ensure persons in need of long term supports and services have access to a range of affordable options, and avoidance of long wait lists for service. She calls for increasing resources to the Rhode Island’s cities and towns to help them support local programs for older adults and increasing eligibility for the Medicare Savings Program so lower-income persons on Medicare can afford needed healthcare.  But, Maigret also says that housing needs of older adults must be considered when allocating housing funds.

Food & Shelter important, too

Gerontologist Deb Burton, Executive Director of RI Elder Info also has some thoughts about the state’s proposed budget cuts.

“Cuts to Meals on Wheels that cause our most vulnerable, at-risk, elders to go hungry are simply unconscionable. Taking meals away from our elders cannot happen,” says Burton.

“We must bring back the housing stabilization unit for older adults. Older adult homelessness has increased more than 400% since COVID hit and rents skyrocketed. Rising housing costs, fixed incomes, and wait lists of 2-8 years for affordable elderly housing have all contributed to this crisis. In addition to these challenges, the application process for getting an apartment is onerous and nearly impossible if one does not have access to the internet,” adds Burton.

Eviction prevention is critical in addressing the elder homelessness issue, says Burton, noting that private sector partnerships and philanthropic donations can support a housing stability unit for older adults, ensuring sustainable funding for eviction prevention programs.

“We must find the strength and compassion to provide the funding necessary for food and shelter for our most vulnerable friends and neighbors. If we don’t, what does the future hold for ourselves?” asks Burton.  

A Final Call

“The November Revenue and Caseload Estimating Conferences will provide updated projections to inform budget development which will help set priorities. However, RI’s most vulnerable and fastest growing demographic must be prioritized in finalizing the FY2026 budget,” urges Costa.