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Social Security 2025 COLA expected to be small increase 

Published in RINewsToday on September 16, 2024

Stay tuned… Next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be announced by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October, upon the release of September’s annual inflation adjustment data.  SSA’s COLA for 2025 will be reflected in beneficiary checks starting in January of that year. Like clockwork, this happens annually, although beneficiaries may see their payments occasionally arrive a few days early due to holidays or weekends. 

The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL) releases its COLA projections each month. The official COLA is determined by the Labor Bureau’s revised CPI-W data from July, August and September.

Some say SSA’s 2025 COLA is “Chump Change”

With one month left, TSCL’s latest COLA model results, released on Sept. 11, 2024, predicts that next year’s COLA will be 2.5 % based on a decline from 2.9% to 2.5% in consumer price data. While 2.5% is lower than the 3.2% received in 2024, that wouldn’t be far from the historical norm. The COLA has averaged about 2.6% over the past 20 years. It went as low as 0.0% in 2010, 2011, and 2016 and as high as 8.7% in 2023.

According to TSCL, by law, the annual inflation adjustment is based on the average inflation during July, August, and September as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Bureau of Labor Statistics averages the CPI-W for these three months and then compares it with the same timeframe from the previous year, says the Alexandria-based nonprofit advocacy group whose mission is to protect Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits.  

TSCL’s COLA latest analysis findings indicates that next year’s COLA of 2.5% would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers of $1,920 by $48 or about $564 annually. The modest increase will not enable seniors to cover increasing cost of living expenses (including food, clothing, transportation, energy, and shelter costs).  “Rising grocery prices is creating food insecurity for many retirees. Feeding America estimated that 5.5 million Americans age 60 and above suffered from food insecurity in 2021, in the most recent study available on the subject, and that number is likely higher today,” note the researchers.

“Due to a higher cost of living, older Americans are using more and more of their income each month just to get by compared to a year ago. “Sixty-five percent of seniors reported monthly expenses of at least $2,000, up from 55% in 2023,” says TSCL’s COLA analysis, noting that statistical testing shows that there’s almost no chance that this gap is due to noisy survey variation. (The 2024 survey had 2,129 respondents; 2023 had 2,258 respondents.)

But low-income seniors aren’t the only ones who have seen their expenses rise, either, say the researchers, noting that more seniors are spending at least $4,000 or $6,000 per month compared to 2023, too, while fewer are able to get by on $1,000 or less. TSCL says that a rise in monthly expenses wouldn’t be much of an issue if seniors’ higher expenses were going to fun activities things, like activities with their grandchildren, or discretionary costs, like bucket-list vacations. However, this is not the case, says the Social Security advocacy group.  “Nearly 80% of senior households in the 2024 survey reported that their monthly budget for essential items like food, housing, and prescription drugs had increased over the last 12 months, with 63% saying they’re worried that their income won’t be enough to cover these basic costs in the coming months,” says the analysis findings.

Over the years, TSCL, along with other aging advocacy groups including the National Committee to Protect Social Security (NCPSSM) and Social Security Works, have called for higher COLAs.

Calls for Congress to change current COLA formula.

Last March, in correspondence to Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA), chairman of the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging, NCPSSM, the Washington DC based Social Security advocacy group endorsed Casey’s legislative proposal, S. 3974, entitled the “Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act.”  The proposal has been referred to the Senate Finance Committee.

Specifically, Casey’s legislative proposal, introduced March 19, 2024, would direct SSA to adjust benefits based on CPI-E rather than CPI-W, if CPI-E would result in a larger increase in benefits. The Bureau of Labor Statistics  (BLS) would calculate and publish the CPI-E on a monthly basis. The Senator believes it would be the most accurate measure of the real effect of inflation on the goods and services that are purchased by America’s seniors.

In NCPSSM’s correspondence, CEO and President Max Richtman strongly supported Casey’s call for requiring BLS to change the way it calculates SSA’s annual COLAs, using a CPI-E formula.

According to Richtman, SSA’s current formula for calculating COLAs is based upon the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is a measurement by the BLS of the changes in the prices paid for a market basket of goods and services purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers.

“The current CPI-W has fallen far short of providing needed inflation protection because it fails to adequately measure the spending patterns of seniors,” says Richtman in his endorsement of Seniors typically spend more on out-of-pocket health care costs than other Americans, and in most years, the cost of health care rises more quickly than general inflation,” he says. “We believe adoption of your bill would go a long way toward protecting those on fixed incomes from the ravages of inflation,” says Richtman.

The following organizations have endorsed S. 3974: Arc of the United States; Alliance for Retired Americans; American Federation of Government Employees; American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; California Alliance for Retired Americans; Justice in Aging; National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare; National Education Association; National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives; Social Security Works; Strengthen Social Security Coalition.

While former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris have both pledged to protect Social Security, nether have put out a specific plan to keep America’s retirement program solvent.

According to the last Social Security Trustees report, the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance  trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2033 at which point SSA will be forced to make a 21 percent across the board reduction.  The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that this would be a $16, 500 cut in annual benefits for a typical dual-income couple retiring at the time of trust fund depletion. 

When the dust settles after the upcoming presidential election, the new president must make it a priority to hammer out a bipartisan fix along with pushing for requiring BLS to use the CPI-E Formula to accurately predict the impact of inflation on America’s retirees. 

Next November, Let Seniors Vote on Social Security Fixes  

Published in RINewsToday on May 13, 2024

By Herb Weiss

The recently released 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees report shows an improved outlook for these programs. This year’s projections show that Social Security can pay its benefits and cover administrative costs now until 2035, one year longer than projected in last year’s report. But, after that, it can only cover 83 percent of benefits, even if Congress fails to take no action to fix the program to ensure its financial viability.  

Medicare’s fiscal health improves even more, says the Medicare Trustees Report. It projects that the program’s Part A (Hospital) fund will be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until 2036 — a full five years later than estimated by the trustees last year. 

Under the Social Security Act of 1935, the Board of Trustees is required to submit the annual reports on the current and projected financial status of the trust funds to Congress on April 1 each year. 

It’s Time for Congress to Protect Social Security

“This year’s report is a measure of good news,” says Martin O’Malley, Commissioner of Social Security, in a statement recognizing the impact of “strong economic that have yielded impressive wage growth, historic job creation and a steady, low unemployment rate.”  

“So long as Americans across our country continue to work, Social Security can — and will — continue to pay benefits,” says O’Malley, calling on Congress to take action to ensure the financial viability of the Trust Fund “into the foreseeable future just as it did I the past on a bipartisan basis.”  

“I will continue to urge Congress to protect and support Social Security and restore the growth of the funds. Whether Congress chooses to eliminate the shortfall by increasing revenue, reducing benefits, or some combination, is a matter of political preference, not affordability,” observes O’Malley, noting that there are several legislative proposals that address the shortfall without benefit cuts — it should debate and vote on these and any other proposals. 

Social Security Advocacy Groups. Key GOP Lawmaker Issue Statements 

With the May 6 release of the 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees report, statements were generated by Social Security advocacy groups and Congressional lawmakers to give their take on the projections. 

Even with the report pushing back the expected depletion dates for Social Security and Medicare, Max Richtman, President & CEO, National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare (NCPSSM) called for Congress to immediately act to strengthen the Social Security program for the 67 million beneficiaries. “We cannot afford to wait to take action until the trust fund is mere months from insolvency, as Congress did in 1983.  The sooner Congress acts, the less painful the remedies will be, says Richtman.

In responding to comments that Social Security is going ‘bankrupt, Richtman says: “Revenue always will flow into Social Security from workers’ payroll contributions, so the program will never be ‘broke.’ But no one wants seniors to suffer an automatic 17% benefit cut in 2035, so Congress must act deliberately, but not recklessly.  A bad deal driven by cuts to earned benefits could be worse than no deal at all.” 

Richtman warns that seniors will take a devastating financial hit if Congress is forced to make cuts in 2035. “Average Social Security benefits are already very modest — about $23,000 per year, which is only $3,000 higher than the federal poverty line for a household of two,” he says, noting that wealthier beneficiaries can afford to contribute more to the program without hurting them financially. 

“Social Security has an accumulated surplus of $2.79 trillion. It is 90 percent funded for the next quarter century, 83 percent for the next half century, and 81 percent for the next three quarters of a century. At the end of the century, in 2100,” says Nancy Altman, President of Social Security Works, noting that the program is projected to cost just 6.1 percent of gross domestic product (“GDP”). 

Like the SSA Commissioner and NCPSSM’s Richtman, and Altman urges Congress to act sooner rather than later to ensure that Social Security can pay full benefits for generations to come, along with expanding Social Security’s modest benefits. “That will restore one of the most important benefits Social Security is intended to provide to the American people — a sense of security,” she says.

As to Medicare, the released report notes the life expectancy for Medicare part A Trust Fund is extended another five years. 

“It’s great news that the Part A trust fund has an additional FIVE years before it becomes depleted, partly because of the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy.  But current and future seniors expect action to keep the trust fund solvent for the long-term,” said Richtman.

“We support President Biden’s plan to strengthen Medicare’s finances, as laid out in his FY 2024 and 2025 budgets,” says Richtman, noting that the president’s plan would bring more revenue into the program, rather than cutting benefits as some Republicans have proposed.  “Building on the prescription drug pricing reforms in the Inflation Reduction Act, the President’s budget proposal would lower Medicare’s costs — and some of those savings would be used to extend the solvency of the Part A trust fund,” he says.

According to Richtman, beyond trust fund solvency, the Trustees reported that the standard Medicare Part B premium will rise next year to $185 per month – a $20 or 6 percent monthly increase. “Any premium increase is a burden to seniors living on fixed incomes, who too often must choose between paying monthly bills or filling prescriptions and getting proper health care.  Seniors need relief from rising premiums and skyrocketing out-of-pocket health care costs. Fortunately, the Biden administration is taking steps to reduce those costs,” said Richtman.

Key GOP Chair  Responds to Trustee Reports

Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX), of the House Budget Committee, quickly released a statement, responding to the release of the 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees report.

According to Arrington, the House Budget Committee’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 Budget, while not making any changes to Social Security or Medicare benefits, provides a way to prod Congress and the President to address the fiscal insolvency of these programs. The Budget Committee has also reported the Fiscal Commission Act, which will also give Congress the tools it needs to save and strengthen these vital programs,” he noted.

“We have the highest levels of indebtedness in our nation’s history, an inflationary and anemic economy, and the two most important senior safety net programs facing insolvency, says Arrington, noting that this year’s trustees report “only reiterates why we need a bipartisan Fiscal Commission to address the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds and the $140 trillion unfunded liability on America’s balance sheet.”

“Republicans and Democrats have both proven they will not fix Social Security and Medicare on their own. We must put our seniors and country first and work together to find a solution,” he charges. “Doing nothing is condemning our seniors to automatic benefit cuts and our country to a future debt crisis,” he says.

Fixing Social Security…A Difference in Perspective.

Both NCPSSM and Social Security Works strongly endorse financially shoring up Social Security by bringing in more money into the trust fund by increasing the payroll wage-cap to require higher-income beneficiaries to pay a higher Social Security payroll tax.  Both Social Security advocacy groups endorse Rep. John Larson’s (D-CT) Social Security 2100 Act, a legislative proposal would maintain the current payroll wage cap (currently set at $168,600), but subjecting wages $400,000 and above to payroll taxes, as well — and dedicating some of high-earners’ investment income to Social Security. 

On the other hand, Republican lawmakers call for cutting earned benefits of younger workers by raising the full-retirement age, means-testing, and replacing the exiting COLA (CPI-W with the Chained CPI-U) that would result in a lower COLA over time. Also, no COLA’s would be provided to high income earners.  

Social Security is considered the third rail a nation’s politics.  Political pundits say that contact with the rail is like touching this high-voltage rail that can result in “political suicide.”  That is why the GOP-controlled House Budget Committee has proposed to create a fiscal commission to give lawmakers political cover to enact the cuts without having to vote on the record.  

Over two months ago, the most recent budget hammered out by the Republican Study Committee, endorsed by 80 percent of the House Republicans, calls for over $1.5 trillion in cuts to Social Security in just the next ten years., including an increase in the retirement age to 69 and cutting disability benefits Medicare costs for seniors by taking away Medicare’s authority to negotiate drug costs, repealing a $ 35 insulin, and $ 2,000 out-of-pocket cap in the Inflation Reduction Act. 

 Additionally, the House GOP budget transitions Medicare to a premium support system that the Congressional Budget Office has found would raises premiums for many seniors.  Finally, it calls for cuts in Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program by $ 4.5 trillion over ten years, taking health care  coverage away from millions of people. 

While President Donald Trump, the GOP’s presidential candidate, has previous said he wouldn’t make cuts to Social Security, recent interviews reveal a change.  According to a March 11, 2024 web posting by CNN’s Kate Sullivan and Tami Luhby, former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for president, “suggested[ in a CNBC interview] he was open to making cuts to Social Security and Medicare after opposing touching the entitlement programs and attacking his GOP presidential primary rivals over the issue.”

At the Polls

Legislative proposals to fix the ailing Social Security and Medicare programs are different as night and day. Rather than to  continue to debate the fine points, let’s put the differing policies on the ballot. With just 177 days left before the upcoming November presidential election, Congress must vote on Democratic and Republican legislative proposals, detailing differing provisions as to how these programs can increase the financial stability of these programs. Larson has already thrown his legislative proposal into the hopper, but it won’t see the light of day with a GOP controlled House.    

Last year, 66 million Americans received Social Security benefits.  This year’s Trustee’s report must send a clear message to these beneficiaries that how Congress acts during the next decade will either make or break the Social Security program. 

So, now House Speaker Mike Johnson, (R-La) and Senate President Charles E. Schumer (D- NY) must allow a vote on both Republican and Democratic legislative proposals in their respective chambers.  Let Senate and House lawmakers go on the record and publicly be tied to a vote as to which legislative political strategy they endorse to financially shore up Social Security and Medicare.  Of course, this can give voters a score card. And if this political issue is as important to them as the economy, abortion, and immigration, they can decide at the ballot box who they should bring back to Capitol Hill. 

That’s the American way to do it.