Tag Archives for Christine Matthews

Women 50+ may well control who wins in midterm election, polls say 

Published on in RINewsToday on October 17, 2022

Almost three weeks away, and Democrats are scrambling to gear up their get-out-the-vote efforts before the upcoming midterm elections. Can the Democratic party that fights to financially strengthen and expand Social Security, and avoid cuts to funding for Medicare, and put the brakes on skyrocketing prescription costs, count on older woman voters to support their candidates to keep control of Congress?

Maybe not a sure bet, says a newly released AARP poll, “She’s the Difference – Survey of Likely Voters Aged 50 plus,” that finds that while woman aged 50 and older are energized to vote, they are still weighing their options on which party to support.  

AARP’s poll findings should cause a  concern to Democratic candidates. According to voter file and census data, older woman voters are one of the largest, most reliable group of voters. They make up a little more and then one-quarter (27 percent) of registered voters and cast nearly a third (30 percent) of all ballots in both the 2020 and 2018 elections. In 2020, 83 percent of registered women voters in this age group turned and in 2018, the last midterm election, they were 15 percent more likely to vote than the population at large. 

 “As the largest bloc of swing voters heading into the midterms, women voters 50+ can make the difference in 2022 and decide the balance of power in Congress and state houses across the country,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer, in a statement releasing the 18-page poll results Oct. 4, 2022.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Lake Research Partners, GBAO Strategies, Echelon Insights and Bellwether Research & Consulting to conduct a national survey of voters aged 50 and over. 

“The biggest bloc of swing voters for both parties is women over 50 who are still undecided, frustrated that candidates are not in touch with their lives, and looking to hear that elected officials will protect Social Security from cuts,” said Celinda Lake, founder and president, Lake Research Partners. 

“Increasingly, it isn’t just that voters of different parties that want different solutions to problems – they don’t even agree on what the biggest problem is. But a few issues, like concerns about political division and the future of Social Security and Medicare, do cross party lines with women over 50,” added Kristin Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights.

“Neither party can say they have “won” the votes of women over 50 yet. Older women are evenly divided on the generic ballot and two-in-five say they will make their final decision in the remaining weeks. They will be watching messaging on Social Security, and many will be focused on threats to democracy and gun violence, while others will more closely track inflation and rising prices,” says Christine Matthews, president, Bellwether Research.

A Warning to Congressional Candidates 

Researchers found that an overwhelming majority of older women voters say they will vote on Nov. 8th, (94 percent), however 51 percent of this swing voter group has still not made up their mind as to which candidates to support. Among these voters in a generic congressional ballot, Republican and Democrat candidates are tied, notes the poll’s findings.

The poll findings indicate that Latinas and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) women voters 50 and over are more undecided on who they will vote cast their vote for, with 77 percent of Latinas and 68 percent of AAPI women saying they have not made up their minds yet.

Reflecting other polls on senior support of Social Security, AARP’s poll found that women voters 50 and over are unified in their support for protecting Social Security from budgetary cuts, with three-quarters saying that this would personally help them a lot. However, half of the respondents think that the economy is not working for them. 

Additionally, two-thirds (66 percent) of women aged 50 and over say they are cutting down on non-essential purchases, four in 10 (41 percent) have cut back on essentials and 40 percent are saving less as ways to financially survive the increased costs of living.

The poll findings report that specific actions that would help older women the most financially include lowering the cost of food (66 percent), lowering the cost of gas (58percent), lowering the cost of health care (57 percent), and expanding Medicare to cover dental and vision (57percent). 

Over 80 percent of women voters rate their motivation to vote on Nov. 8th at a 10 on a 0 to10 scale, with economic and social issues being key issues for them. The tops issues for Republican women aged 50 and over include: inflation and rising prices (60 percent); crime (51 percent); immigration (49 percent); and election security (49 percent). On the other hand, Democratic women aged 50 and over say voting rights (63 percent) and threats to democracy (62 percent) are their top concerns, followed by gun violence (54 percent) and abortion (54 percent).

Independent women aged 50 and over rank division in the country (46 percent), voting rights (43 percent), threats to democracy (42percent), and inflation and rising prices (41 percent) as their biggest concerns.

AARP’s survey also found that older women voters are unimpressed with the job elected officials have done on “understanding the everyday challenges of people like me,” with three-quarters (75 percent) saying they have done just a fair (32 percent) or poor (43 percent) job.

“Social Security may be a consensus issue with women 50+, yet among Democrats, threats to democracy and voting rights are very much top tier. And across all groups of women 50+, “jobs” are bottom tier. That’s not surprising given not many women have said they have gone back to work or taken on extra shifts in order to make ends meet,” said Margie Omero, principal at GBAO.

A Final Note…

As early voting begins, “Roll Call” notes that there are 81 House races listed as competitive, meaning they are rated as Toss-up, Tilt, Lean, or Likely. Ten Senate seats are considered Leaning or Toss-Up, says the Cook Political Report. With these numbers Democrat and Republican candidates should heed the results of AARP’s poll reporting the older woman voters remain uncommitted to supporting candidates before the upcoming mid-term elections. With weeks to go, how do you bring them back into the fold?

Whoever takes control of Congress on Nov. 8th, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has scheduled 17 days between the election until Dec. 15, 2022, to finish business before the closing of the 117th Congressional session. During this time frame, if the House Democrats lose control Pelosi has an opportunity to set a Democratic policy agenda before the next Congress.  She might consider allowing markup and a floor vote on Congressman Larson’s H.R. 5723, Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust Act.  This landmark legislation would strengthen and expand Social Security.  Even with President Joe Biden and 202 Democratic House lawmakers calling for a House vote, it was pulled from markup, reportedly over cost concerns. Passage of this bill would set the stage for the Democrats becoming the protectors of Social Security if the GOP considers making cuts to the program, raising the eligibility age or privatizing the program. 

At press time, the Democratic House Speaker has also not allowed a vote in the House Rules Committee on Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline’s H.R. 583, Reestablishing the House Select Committee on Aging (HSCoA) in the House Rules Committee. Passage in this Committee would almost ensure passage on the House floor with Pelosi’s support.  Cicilline’s resolution would bring back this investigative committee that put the spotlight on House aging policies over 30 years ago, but was eliminated in 1994. It’s a winning policy issue for America’s seniors and this group has traditionally been the highest turnout age group in previous elections.  

If the GOP takes control of the House and Senate, it sets the legislative agenda for these two legislative chambers during 118th Congress. For the next two years Democrats will not be able to move legislation to the House and Senate floors that improve the financial health and expansion of Social Security benefits or to bring back the HSCoA.  Congressional Democrats, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, Social Security Works, and other aging advocacy groups, would be put in the defensive position to defend Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs that enhance the quality of life of America’s seniors. 

According to AARP, the national survey (“She’s the Difference…”) was fielded by phone and online between Sept. 6 and Sept. 13, 2022, using landline, cell and text to web data collection. The final survey included interviews with 800 women voters aged 50 and over who are likely to vote in 2022, with oversamples of 100 Black, 100 Hispanic/Latina English speaking, 100 Hispanic/Latina Spanish speaking, and 100 Asian American and Pacific Islander women voters aged 50 and over. Weighting resulted in an effective sample size of 800 likely women voters aged 50 and over with a margin of error of +/- 3.5percent. 

To view the full poll findings, go to https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/shes-the-difference-likely-voters-50-plus-survey-october-2022-polling-memo.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00570.003.pdf.

For further information, contact Rachelle L. Cummins, Research Director at AARP, go to  Research at rcummins@aarp.com, research@aarp.org. 

Herb Weiss, LRI’12, a Pawtucket writer covering aging, health care and medical issues. To purchase his books, Taking Charge: Collected Stories on Aging Boldly, and a sequel, go to herbweiss.com

AARP poll: women over 50 to decide control of congress, state capitols

Published in RINewsToday on April 11, 2022

It’s just 214 days until the upcoming midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, 2022, (Rhode Island’s primary is 167 days away scheduled for Sept. 13, 2022). During the 117th Congress, with a slim majority of 222 Democrats to 212 Republicans, the Democrats control the House chamber. When the dust settles after the election we’ll see if the Democrats retain their grip on this chamber. Washington insiders say that Senate Democrats, holding the majority with a 50-50 split with vice president Kamala Harris’ having a tie-breaking vote, could lose control of the upper chamber if the Republican Party flips seats. Thirty-five Senators are up for reelection.

Twenty Republican and 16 Democrat gubernatorial seats (including Rhode Island) are also up for grabs this election cycle, too.

A new AARP study finds that women voters aged 50 and over who haven’t decided which candidate to support will decide who controls Congress and state capitols across the nation in the next election.

Taking a Look at Older Women Voters

AARP’s  new research findings released April 6th, in partnership with pollsters Celinda Lake, Christine Matthews, Kristen Soltis Anderson, and Margie Omero, found that only 17% of women in this key voting bloc have made up their mind about who they will support in the upcoming 2022 elections. Not quite two-thirds (65%) of these voters say they will not make their decisions until weeks or even days before Election Day.

“Contrary to conventional wisdom, women voters aged 50 and over do not solidly belong in either party’s camp — and the vast majority haven’t made up their minds about how they’ll vote in November,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer. “The instability and uncertainty of the economy, the pandemic, and the political environment are leading these women to demand that candidates address quality of life and pocketbook issues like the cost of living, supply chain problems, and ways to end the discord permeating politics today,” she says.

The pollsters found that the most important issues for r women voters aged 50 and over are “kitchen table budgets” and the “day-to-day experience of rising prices.” Nearly half of those surveyed (46%) see rising cost of living as the most important issue facing the nation today. And 59% say rising prices are the most important issue to them, personally, when reflecting about the economy.

According to AARP, women aged 50 and over are one of the largest, most reliable group of voters. According to voter file and census bureau data, they make up a little more than one-quarter (27%) of registered voters and cast nearly a third (30%) of all ballots in both the 2020 and 2018 elections.  In 2020, 83% of registered women voters in this age group turned out and in 2018, the last midterm election, they were 15% more likely to vote than the population at large, says the nation’s largest advocacy group.  

Concerns About Rising Costs and the Nation’s Economy 

AARP’s national survey also found that 72% of the woman respondents are concerned about having enough income to cover rising costs, with 48% saying they are very concerned. Fifty two percent say the economy is not working well for them, a 15-point change from 2019, when just 37% of women said the economy was not working well for them.

The pollsters found that most are not optimistic about their own financial futures in the next 12 months – with 47% saying they think their personal financial situation will stay the same, while 39% think it will get worse and only 13% think it will improve. The survey findings also indicated that those respondents age 50-64 are intensely worried about saving for retirement and their financial future – with 51% saying they are very concerned about Social Security being there for their retirement and 30% saying they are most concerned about having saved enough for retirement.  

According to the AARP survey, women voters aged 50 and over also expressed concern about political division in the country, and they are unimpressed with the job elected officials are doing on a range of issues, including their dominant concern of rising prices.

By more than a two-to-one margin, the pollsters say that these voters want politicians who are willing to work together to get things done, even if the result is an occasional compromise that goes against voters’ values (67%), over politicians who consistently fight for their values but don’t often find solutions (30%). This finding remains consistent across party identifications, with 77% of Democratic women and 57% of Republican women preferring a politician compromise to get things done, while 21% of Democratic women and 40% of Republican women prefer a values-prioritizing politician.

Taking a deeper look, the pollsters found that women voters 50 and over are divided evenly by party (44% R – 45% D), in sharp contrast to their male counterparts who are solidly Republican (51% R – 38% D).  In a generic ballot, the Democratic candidate for Congress (48% will vote for) has a 7-point advantage over the Republican candidate (41% will vote for) among these women voters.

Similar Observations from the Pollsters 

“Addressing the rising cost of living is an issue that any smart candidate for office will put front and center this year,” said Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights. “Especially in midterm elections, women voters aged 50 and over will be a critical group that both parties must compete for, and cost of living is clearly the top issue on which they want leaders to be focused,” she said.

Celinda Lake, founder and president, Lake Research Partners, agrees with Anderson that women aged 50 and over can be the significant voting bloc in the 2022 elections. “They are sure to turn out in high numbers when many other voters are disengaging. These voters have yet to make up their minds and are dissatisfied with the jobs their elected leaders are doing, especially on the kitchen table economic issues they face every day,” she notes.

“Women over 50 may not only be the decision-makers in their households, but they may also be the decision-makers of the midterm elections,” said Margie Omero, Principal at GBAO.

Christine Matthews, President of Bellwether Research, says“Women over 50 are arguably the most important voting cohort for the 2022 midterm elections – and they are not happy,” “They are extremely worried about the impact rising prices – particularly groceries – are having on their budget and their ability to save for retirement,” she says.

Matthew adds,” A majority say the economy is not working for them – a significant uptick from two years ago. They want politicians to work together to find solutions to inflation and other key issues, but they are not pleased with what they see. Elected officials should be prepared to demonstrate to this key group that they are working productively on cost-of-living issues,” she says.

The AARP national survey was conducted by phone and online from Feb. 18 to March 3, 2022, using 1,836 voters aged 50 and over who are likely to vote in 2022, with samples of Black voters, Hispanic/Latino voters, Asian American/Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander voters, as well as American Indian/Alaska Native voters. 

A Final Note…

It’s just seven months before the upcoming midterm elections. The historical voting pattern of midterm elections is clear. “The sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. Going back to Harry Truman’s presidency, the president’s party has lost, on average, 29 House seats in each president’s first midterm election,” says James M. Lindsay, senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at the Council on Foreign Relations, in a blog article, “The 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections by Number,” published on March 8, 2022.

Lindsay, senior vice president and director of studies and Maurice R. Greenberg chair, says, “The betting money is that the Republican Party will be the winner on election night, taking back control of one, if not both houses of Congress,” he says, noting that eight months can be a lifetime in politics. 

Republicans are optimistic in picking up seats because of Biden’s low job approval rating, inflation being at a 40-year high, 31 incumbent Democrats retiring (it’s more difficult to defeat an incumbent) and the COVID-19 pandemic still killing 1,500 American’s daily, says Lindsay. But Lindsay predicts Democrats may do better at the polls just because “the midterms are still eight months away,” and who knows where the country will be then. “The redistricting of House seats is going well for the Democrats with several states throwing out Republican redistricting plans and others enacting redistricting plans to benefit the Democrats, he says.

“The Senate math favors Democrats, the party just defending 14 seats while Republicans must keep 21 Senate seats,” adds Lindsay. “Ideologically extreme candidates” will push away moderate voters in House and Senate races, he says. 

But AARP’s national poll warning to Senators, House lawmakers, and Governors to not ignore the concerns of older women voters should be heeded. Not listening has a political cost. It may well determine the balance of power in the next election.