Women 50+ may well control who wins in midterm election, polls say 

Published on in RINewsToday on October 17, 2022

Almost three weeks away, and Democrats are scrambling to gear up their get-out-the-vote efforts before the upcoming midterm elections. Can the Democratic party that fights to financially strengthen and expand Social Security, and avoid cuts to funding for Medicare, and put the brakes on skyrocketing prescription costs, count on older woman voters to support their candidates to keep control of Congress?

Maybe not a sure bet, says a newly released AARP poll, “She’s the Difference – Survey of Likely Voters Aged 50 plus,” that finds that while woman aged 50 and older are energized to vote, they are still weighing their options on which party to support.  

AARP’s poll findings should cause a  concern to Democratic candidates. According to voter file and census data, older woman voters are one of the largest, most reliable group of voters. They make up a little more and then one-quarter (27 percent) of registered voters and cast nearly a third (30 percent) of all ballots in both the 2020 and 2018 elections. In 2020, 83 percent of registered women voters in this age group turned and in 2018, the last midterm election, they were 15 percent more likely to vote than the population at large. 

 “As the largest bloc of swing voters heading into the midterms, women voters 50+ can make the difference in 2022 and decide the balance of power in Congress and state houses across the country,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer, in a statement releasing the 18-page poll results Oct. 4, 2022.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Lake Research Partners, GBAO Strategies, Echelon Insights and Bellwether Research & Consulting to conduct a national survey of voters aged 50 and over. 

“The biggest bloc of swing voters for both parties is women over 50 who are still undecided, frustrated that candidates are not in touch with their lives, and looking to hear that elected officials will protect Social Security from cuts,” said Celinda Lake, founder and president, Lake Research Partners. 

“Increasingly, it isn’t just that voters of different parties that want different solutions to problems – they don’t even agree on what the biggest problem is. But a few issues, like concerns about political division and the future of Social Security and Medicare, do cross party lines with women over 50,” added Kristin Soltis Anderson, founding partner, Echelon Insights.

“Neither party can say they have “won” the votes of women over 50 yet. Older women are evenly divided on the generic ballot and two-in-five say they will make their final decision in the remaining weeks. They will be watching messaging on Social Security, and many will be focused on threats to democracy and gun violence, while others will more closely track inflation and rising prices,” says Christine Matthews, president, Bellwether Research.

A Warning to Congressional Candidates 

Researchers found that an overwhelming majority of older women voters say they will vote on Nov. 8th, (94 percent), however 51 percent of this swing voter group has still not made up their mind as to which candidates to support. Among these voters in a generic congressional ballot, Republican and Democrat candidates are tied, notes the poll’s findings.

The poll findings indicate that Latinas and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) women voters 50 and over are more undecided on who they will vote cast their vote for, with 77 percent of Latinas and 68 percent of AAPI women saying they have not made up their minds yet.

Reflecting other polls on senior support of Social Security, AARP’s poll found that women voters 50 and over are unified in their support for protecting Social Security from budgetary cuts, with three-quarters saying that this would personally help them a lot. However, half of the respondents think that the economy is not working for them. 

Additionally, two-thirds (66 percent) of women aged 50 and over say they are cutting down on non-essential purchases, four in 10 (41 percent) have cut back on essentials and 40 percent are saving less as ways to financially survive the increased costs of living.

The poll findings report that specific actions that would help older women the most financially include lowering the cost of food (66 percent), lowering the cost of gas (58percent), lowering the cost of health care (57 percent), and expanding Medicare to cover dental and vision (57percent). 

Over 80 percent of women voters rate their motivation to vote on Nov. 8th at a 10 on a 0 to10 scale, with economic and social issues being key issues for them. The tops issues for Republican women aged 50 and over include: inflation and rising prices (60 percent); crime (51 percent); immigration (49 percent); and election security (49 percent). On the other hand, Democratic women aged 50 and over say voting rights (63 percent) and threats to democracy (62 percent) are their top concerns, followed by gun violence (54 percent) and abortion (54 percent).

Independent women aged 50 and over rank division in the country (46 percent), voting rights (43 percent), threats to democracy (42percent), and inflation and rising prices (41 percent) as their biggest concerns.

AARP’s survey also found that older women voters are unimpressed with the job elected officials have done on “understanding the everyday challenges of people like me,” with three-quarters (75 percent) saying they have done just a fair (32 percent) or poor (43 percent) job.

“Social Security may be a consensus issue with women 50+, yet among Democrats, threats to democracy and voting rights are very much top tier. And across all groups of women 50+, “jobs” are bottom tier. That’s not surprising given not many women have said they have gone back to work or taken on extra shifts in order to make ends meet,” said Margie Omero, principal at GBAO.

A Final Note…

As early voting begins, “Roll Call” notes that there are 81 House races listed as competitive, meaning they are rated as Toss-up, Tilt, Lean, or Likely. Ten Senate seats are considered Leaning or Toss-Up, says the Cook Political Report. With these numbers Democrat and Republican candidates should heed the results of AARP’s poll reporting the older woman voters remain uncommitted to supporting candidates before the upcoming mid-term elections. With weeks to go, how do you bring them back into the fold?

Whoever takes control of Congress on Nov. 8th, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has scheduled 17 days between the election until Dec. 15, 2022, to finish business before the closing of the 117th Congressional session. During this time frame, if the House Democrats lose control Pelosi has an opportunity to set a Democratic policy agenda before the next Congress.  She might consider allowing markup and a floor vote on Congressman Larson’s H.R. 5723, Social Security 2100: A Sacred Trust Act.  This landmark legislation would strengthen and expand Social Security.  Even with President Joe Biden and 202 Democratic House lawmakers calling for a House vote, it was pulled from markup, reportedly over cost concerns. Passage of this bill would set the stage for the Democrats becoming the protectors of Social Security if the GOP considers making cuts to the program, raising the eligibility age or privatizing the program. 

At press time, the Democratic House Speaker has also not allowed a vote in the House Rules Committee on Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline’s H.R. 583, Reestablishing the House Select Committee on Aging (HSCoA) in the House Rules Committee. Passage in this Committee would almost ensure passage on the House floor with Pelosi’s support.  Cicilline’s resolution would bring back this investigative committee that put the spotlight on House aging policies over 30 years ago, but was eliminated in 1994. It’s a winning policy issue for America’s seniors and this group has traditionally been the highest turnout age group in previous elections.  

If the GOP takes control of the House and Senate, it sets the legislative agenda for these two legislative chambers during 118th Congress. For the next two years Democrats will not be able to move legislation to the House and Senate floors that improve the financial health and expansion of Social Security benefits or to bring back the HSCoA.  Congressional Democrats, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, Social Security Works, and other aging advocacy groups, would be put in the defensive position to defend Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs that enhance the quality of life of America’s seniors. 

According to AARP, the national survey (“She’s the Difference…”) was fielded by phone and online between Sept. 6 and Sept. 13, 2022, using landline, cell and text to web data collection. The final survey included interviews with 800 women voters aged 50 and over who are likely to vote in 2022, with oversamples of 100 Black, 100 Hispanic/Latina English speaking, 100 Hispanic/Latina Spanish speaking, and 100 Asian American and Pacific Islander women voters aged 50 and over. Weighting resulted in an effective sample size of 800 likely women voters aged 50 and over with a margin of error of +/- 3.5percent. 

To view the full poll findings, go to https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/shes-the-difference-likely-voters-50-plus-survey-october-2022-polling-memo.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00570.003.pdf.

For further information, contact Rachelle L. Cummins, Research Director at AARP, go to  Research at rcummins@aarp.comresearch@aarp.org

Herb Weiss, LRI’12, a Pawtucket writer covering aging, health care and medical issues. To purchase his books, Taking Charge: Collected Stories on Aging Boldly, and a sequel, go to herbweiss.com

America’s Seniors need House of Reps. to bring back Aging Committee

Published in RINewsToday on July 4, 2022

By Tom Spulak, Bob Weiner and Herb Weiss

With a backdrop of extensive media coverage of the ongoing Ukraine War, the Jan. 6th hearings, and covering the political postering of Republican and Democrats as the midterm elections approach (just 127 days from now), Congressman David Cicilline (D-RI) along with 50 Democratic cosponsors calls on the House of Representatives to pass his legislation, H. Res. 583, that would reestablish the House Select Committee on Aging, (HSCoA) and for Speaker Pelosi and Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern to schedule the necessary consideration in the House Rules Committee to enable floor action.

The Rhode Island Congressman’s effort has caught the attention of a group, including former Congressional staffers, the Leadership Council on Aging Organizations and the Strengthen Social Security Coalition (both representing over 100 million seniors age 50 and over), Execs of national aging groups, the Florida-based Claude Pepper Foundation, and a Rhode Island writer, who see the need to bring the investigative Special Committee back to put the spotlight on a myriad of aging issues that Congress must address.

Every day, 12,000 Americans turn 60. By 2030, nearly 75 million people in the U.S.—or 20 percent of the country—will be age 65 or older. “As America grows older, the need for support and services provided under programs like Social Security, SSI, Medicare, Medicaid and the Older Americans Act also increases,” and the need for re-establishing the House Selection Committee on Aging (HSCoA) becomes even more important.

The last two years have proven particularly difficult for older adults in our country as the coronavirus had a disparate impact on the lives of older Americans, particularly those residing in the 28,900 nation’s assisted living facilities and over 15,000 nursing homes.

Historically, the HSCoA, operational from1975 to 1993, served as a unique venue that allowed open, bipartisan debate from various ideological and philosophical perspectives to promote consensus that, in turn, helped facilitate the critical work of the standing committees. Addressing the needs of older Americans in a post-pandemic world will require this type of investigative, legislative oversight, work which can be advanced and promoted by reestablishing the HSCoA.

As Americans are aging, we also face a variety of intergenerational concerns that merit the investigation by the HSCoA, such as growing demands on family caregivers and a burgeoning retirement security crisis.

A restored HSCoA would have an opportunity to more fully explore a range of aging issues and innovations that cross Authorizing Committees of jurisdiction, while holding field hearings, convening remote hearings, engaging communities, and promoting understanding and dialogue. Having both would bring value to Congressional deliberations.

Today, the Senate Permanent Special Committee on Aging is working on everything from scams against seniors to increasing Home and Community Based Services (HCBS), to calling out questionable billing practices by private Medicare Advantage insurers. Seniors have been better off over the last 30 years with a Senate Aging Committee in existence — and the Senate investigative committee would benefit from a reestablished HSCoA, whose sole mission would be to look out for older Americans.

Older voters vote both Democratic and Republican. Although the Democrats created an array of federal programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the Affordable Care Act, these doesn’t guarantee they vote for this party. Quite candidly, it’s close. In 2020, while Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million, Donald Trump won the senior vote 52% to 47%. It’s not a matter of party. Seniors’ quality of life is not political. Passage of H. Res. 583 would send a very clear message out to America’s older voters that Congress can successfully govern and create legislation to enhance the quality of life in their later years.

Over 30 years ago, Congressman Claude Pepper died. He was a great visible national advocate for America’s seniors. In his 80s, he chaired the HSCoA and later the House Rules Committee. As Chair of HSCoA, he passed landmark aging legislation, working closely with the House authorizing committees with jurisdiction over aging programs and services. His efforts put an end to mandatory retirement. Alzheimer’s became a household word because of the hearing of his investigative committee. Legislation was passed to enhance the quality of care in the nation’s nursing homes, even creating the National Institute’s for Health.

As newspapers in communities across the nation curtail or jettison their investigative teams, the initial HSCoA has a proven track record and reputation of investigating aging issues, and this is a sound reason as to why the investigative committee should again be reactivated.

Reestablishing the HSCoA would recognize Congressman Pepper, the nation’s most visible and effective spokesperson for seniors, and more importantly to seniors a seat at the “legislative table” as Congress deliberates and debate aging policy issues.

What a symbolic opportunity to have passed H. Res. 583 in May during Older Americans Month. Sadly, this did not happen. But Speaker Pelosi has an opportunity to use her leadership position to endorse the resolution to bring back the HSCoA before the midterm elections. And Congressman Cicilline must continually remind his House colleagues of this resolution’s importance to America’s seniors, each, and every chance he has — on the House floor, at Committee meetings, and in the hallowed halls of Congress.  With the support of the Democratic caucus, leadership will get the message that it’s time to act.  Now.

Tom Spulak, former staff director and General Counsel of the House Rules Committee when Claude Pepper was Chairman.

Bob Weiner is former staff director and confident to the late Congressman Pepper when he chaired the HSCoA.

Herb Weiss is a Pawtucket, RI-based writer who has covered aging, health care and medical issues for over 40 yearsand writes this weekly column on aging issues for RINewsToday.com.

Florida support needed for Pepper’s Aging Committee | Opinion

Published in the Tallahassee Democrat on June 5, 2022

Bravo to Thomas J. Spulak whose excellent opinion piece, “Remembering the legacy of Senator Claude Pepper, appeared in the Tallahassee Democrat on May 29th, one day before Florida Congressman Claude Pepper’s passing almost 30 years ago.

Although Spulak, President of the Claude Pepper Foundation, tells a through story as to Pepper’s impact on the world stage of foreign affairs, his fight against poverty, for equal payment and an adequate minimum wage, and improving the nation’s health care, it barely scratched the surface as to his accomplishments in fighting for the nation’s seniors.

As Bob Weiner, the former staff director to Pepper when he chaired the House Select Committee on Aging (HSCoA), stated “Pepper’s congressional legacy, especially as he grew older, was chairing the HSCoA, which featured banning mandatory retirement (with Colonel Sanders as a witness), protecting nursing homes, expanding home health care, and protecting Social Security with solvency through 2034.”

 Last March, the Leadership Council on Aging Organization endorsed Rhode Island Congressman David Cicilline’s H. Res. 583, reestablishing the HSCoA.  Two months later, the Coalition to Strengthen Social Security announced its support of the resolution, too.  The two national coalitions represent almost 400 national and state aging organization’s conservatively representing almost 100 million voters age 50 and over.  

After Pepper’s passing, no national advocate has emerged to take the place of the former Chairman of the House Aging Committee, who served as its chair for six years. As a result, House Democratic lawmakers and aging advocates are forced every new session of Congress to fend off proposals to cut aging programs, Social Security, and Medicare. 

Today, H. Res. 583 has only 50 co-sponsors, six from Florida. It’s time for 21 Florida lawmakers to join their six colleagues to step up to the plate and become cosponsors for Cicilline’s resolution. 

 If not for the fact that it is sound aging policy, support should be given to celebrate Pepper’s legacy and legislative impact that has enhanced the quality of life of the nation’s seniors.